Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 86¢ · $67K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$67.1K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 86.1¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$63.3K

Total Shares73,746

Combined PnL+$7.2K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares26,757

Combined PnL$-4.0K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

1210h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WordleAddict	Noavg 71.3¢	$25.4K	$30.6K	+$5.2K	61% 941-614 (1555)
tourists	Noavg 83.4¢	$13.0K	$13.4K	+$407.42	66% 427-222 (649)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 77.8¢	$12.0K	$12.6K	+$672.95	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 71.8¢	$3.6K	$4.3K	+$708.08	73% 350-129 (479)
tetrase	Noavg 75.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$151.56	61% 839-544 (1383)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 86.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$2.99	89% 4653-547 (5200)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 23.4¢	$1.4K	$814.11	-$544.72	50% 415-417 (832)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 28.2¢	$1.5K	$730.6	-$742.63	35% 35-65 (100)
0x8712CTR	Yesavg 52¢	$1.6K	$422.99	$-1.1K	30% 102-237 (339)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$738.43	$412.51	-$325.92	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
SI singularitymanCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$1.1K	$338.54	-$743.71	42% 138-193 (331)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$400	$331.76	-$71.76	56% 836-645 (1481)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 34.8¢	$798.74	$323.28	-$475.46	58% 1250-888 (2138)
LI linethCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$248.42	$304.84	+$52.1	41% 245-350 (595)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$50.28	$46.62	-$3.66	38% 20-32 (52)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$50.33	$41.95	-$8.38	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

WordleAddict

Invested

$25,424.84

Value

$30.6K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

tourists

Invested

$12,972.91

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$407.42

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$11,973.27

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$672.95

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$3,554.95

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$708.08

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

tetrase

Invested

$1,089.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$151.56

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,198.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$2.99

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,353.07

Value

$814.11

PnL

-$544.72

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,473.24

Value

$730.6

PnL

-$742.63

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

0x8712CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,559.98

Value

$422.99

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$738.43

Value

$412.51

PnL

-$325.92

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

singularitymanCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,079.86

Value

$338.54

PnL

-$743.71

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$331.76

PnL

-$71.76

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$798.74

Value

$323.28

PnL

-$475.46

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

linethCTR

Yes

Invested

$248.42

Value

$304.84

PnL

+$52.1

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.28

Value

$46.62

PnL

-$3.66

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.33

Value

$41.95

PnL

-$8.38

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

1210h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.