Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Entry

13.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,200

Combined PnL+$149.3

Yes12 traders

Total Value$20.46

Total Shares40,927

Combined PnL$-5.0K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

233 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
studmuffin6969	Noavg 95.3¢	$953	$999.5	+$46.5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
TT tttt123	Noavg 48.5¢	$97.1	$199.9	+$102.8	72% 1535-585 (2120)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$336.35	$8	-$328.35	35% 35-64 (99)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 37.8¢	$3.0K	$4.22	$-3.0K	82% 945-201 (1146)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$117.95	$2.66	-$115.4	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$301.34	$2.49	-$172.67	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$1.79	$1.79	-$77.91	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
HO HongKongMenaceCTR	Yesavg 57.6¢	$673.52	$0.59	-$672.92	82% 47-10 (57)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Yesavg 64¢	$320	$0.25	-$319.75	60% 474-313 (787)
ZaratustraCTR	Yesavg 63¢	$58.12	$0.22	-$280.55	62% 351-214 (565)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.5	$0.17	-$7.33	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0	$0.07	+$0.07	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.4	$0.01	-$2.39	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0	$0	+$0	39% 965-1508 (2473)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$953

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$46.5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

tttt123

Invested

$97.1

Value

$199.9

PnL

+$102.8

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

PnL

-$328.35

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,979.65

Value

$4.22

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$117.95

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$115.4

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$301.34

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$172.67

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$77.91

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

HongKongMenaceCTR

Yes

Invested

$673.52

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$672.92

Record

82%

47-10 (57)

JoeBlack01CTR

Yes

Invested

$320

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$319.75

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

ZaratustraCTR

Yes

Invested

$58.12

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$280.55

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.33

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.39

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

233 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.