Will FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo end in a draw?
6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 97¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
13
Yes 46%
1 arb excluded
$39.8K
$2.5K
93.6¢ → 97¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH aHjCzCTR | Noavg 7.7¢ | $1.1K | $10.2K | +$9.1K | 43% 4053-5291 (9344) |
 Rex416 | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $7.5K | $7.7K | +$121.56 | 57% 2564-1948 (4512) |
RE retarbCTR | Noavg 7.5¢ | $514.5 | $5.0K | +$4.5K | 48% 4277-4581 (8858) |
SL SlickRick123CTR | Noavg 10.5¢ | $632.01 | $4.4K | +$3.8K | 46% 4540-5353 (9893) |
GT gt7238 | Yesavg 94.3¢ | $14.9K | $4.3K | $-10.6K | 45% 635-777 (1412) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 95.8¢ | $1.8K | $2.5K | +$792.35 | 54% 21609-18647 (40256) |
WH whig | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $8.3K | $2.4K | $-5.9K | 59% 402-280 (682) |
 poshposhCTR | Noavg 15.5¢ | $318.19 | $1.5K | -$256.41 | 58% 11459-8313 (19772) |
LR lryyyCTR | Noavg 11.6¢ | $206.61 | $1.3K | +$1.1K | 46% 7945-9276 (17221) |
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | Yesavg 93¢ | $190 | $200 | +$10 | 44% 9918-12867 (22785) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 2¢ | $4 | $146 | +$142 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 93¢ | $186 | $54 | -$132 | |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR | Noavg 50¢ | $96.89 | $141.46 | +$44.57 | 50% 1279-1293 (2572) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR | Noavg 5¢ | $8 | $116.8 | +$108.8 | 49% 2602-2661 (5263) |
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Yesavg 70.2¢ | $289.43 | $111.24 | -$178.19 | 60% 894-585 (1479) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $9 | $2.7 | -$6.3 | 82% 71-16 (87) |
Invested
$1,067.9
Value
$10.2K
PnL
+$9.1K
Record
43%
4053-5291 (9344)
Rex416Invested
$7,545.55
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$121.56
Record
57%
2564-1948 (4512)
Invested
$514.5
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$4.5K
Record
48%
4277-4581 (8858)
Invested
$632.01
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$3.8K
Record
46%
4540-5353 (9893)
Invested
$14,890.03
Value
$4.3K
PnL
$-10.6K
Record
45%
635-777 (1412)
Invested
$1,750
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$792.35
Record
54%
21609-18647 (40256)
Invested
$8,329.95
Value
$2.4K
PnL
$-5.9K
Record
59%
402-280 (682)
poshposhCTRInvested
$318.19
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$256.41
Record
58%
11459-8313 (19772)
Invested
$206.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
46%
7945-9276 (17221)
Invested
$190
Value
$200
PnL
+$10
Record
44%
9918-12867 (22785)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.89
Value
$141.46
PnL
+$44.57
Record
50%
1279-1293 (2572)
Invested
$8
Value
$116.8
PnL
+$108.8
Record
49%
2602-2661 (5263)
Invested
$289.43
Value
$111.24
PnL
-$178.19
Record
60%
894-585 (1479)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121<$100Invested
$9
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$6.3
Record
82%
71-16 (87)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.