Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 16 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$6.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 1.9¢

+146% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares571,944

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

194 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.2K	$3.9K	+$2.7K	69% 987-450 (1437)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$910.03	$2.2K	+$1.3K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$524.34	$1.4K	+$842.22	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$581.29	$975	+$393.8	36% 190-333 (523)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$353.02	$542.86	+$189.83	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$534.88	$496.67	-$38.21	38% 20-32 (52)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$137.94	$448.31	+$310.38	69% 423-188 (611)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$260.2	$390.39	+$130.2	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$100	$390	+$290	57% 51-39 (90)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$136.16	$136.16	+$81.61	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$44.06	$110.15	+$66.02	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$64.95	+$64.95	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$39	+$39	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$551.41	$30.77	+$19.73	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$29.25	+$23.34	58% 1153-825 (1978)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.11	$0.35	+$0.24	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,198.68

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$910.03

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$524.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$842.22

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$581.29

Value

$975

PnL

+$393.8

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$353.02

Value

$542.86

PnL

+$189.83

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$534.88

Value

$496.67

PnL

-$38.21

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.94

Value

$448.31

PnL

+$310.38

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$260.2

Value

$390.39

PnL

+$130.2

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$390

PnL

+$290

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.16

Value

$136.16

PnL

+$81.61

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$44.06

Value

$110.15

PnL

+$66.02

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$64.95

PnL

+$64.95

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$39

PnL

+$39

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$551.41

Value

$30.77

PnL

+$19.73

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$23.34

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.24

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

194 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3163.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

3263.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.