Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ryan Seggerman, while the market favors Jonas Forejtek (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bratislava 2: Jonas Forejtek vs Ryan Seggerman

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ryan Seggerman (40%) · Ryan Seggerman at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Jonas Forejtek>99¢Ryan Seggerman<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ryan Seggerman

Consensus Traders

Ryan Seggerman 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.3K

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRyan Seggerman at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Seggerman

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Jonas Forejtek 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jonas Forejtek100%

Ryan Seggerman0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryan Seggerman4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares15,475

Combined PnL$-6.3K

Jonas Forejtek6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,343

Combined PnL-$30.15

Ryan Seggerman — 40%Jonas Forejtek — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Ryan Seggermanavg 50.7¢	$7.2K	$2.0K	$-5.2K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
TH thestingsnake	Jonas Forejtekavg 76¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$232.8	60% 4110-2768 (6878)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jonas Forejtekavg 59.5¢	$1.1K	$853.91	-$263.18	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 81.5¢	$590.38	$464.62	-$125.76	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 81.5¢	$372.26	$248.88	-$123.39
└ Ryan Seggerman leg	Ryan Seggermanavg 46¢	$218.12	$215.75	-$2.37
RN1CTR	Ryan Seggermanavg 33¢	$1.3K	$293.88	$-1.1K	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jonas Forejtekavg 62¢	$179.63	$173.5	-$6.13	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
VeryLucky888	Jonas Forejtekavg 61¢	$114.85	$90.98	+$1.52	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Ryan Seggermanavg 52¢	$34	$13.03	-$20.97	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
TRCM<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.55	+$0.15	55% 3962-3193 (7155)
SC SchruteBucks	Jonas Forejtekavg 67.5¢	$113.36	$2.68	+$4.69	56% 1868-1450 (3318)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Ryan Seggermanavg 35.3¢	$29.8	$0.02	+$0.18	85% 5899-1010 (6909)

UpTheBluesCTR

Ryan Seggerman

Invested

$7,176.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

thestingsnake

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,144.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$232.8

Record

60%

4110-2768 (6878)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,117.09

Value

$853.91

PnL

-$263.18

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$590.38

Value

$464.62

PnL

-$125.76

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

Both legs:

Jonas Forejtek$372.2681.5¢-$123.39

Ryan Seggerman$218.1246¢-$2.37

RN1CTR

Ryan Seggerman

Invested

$1,347.62

Value

$293.88

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$179.63

Value

$173.5

PnL

-$6.13

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

VeryLucky888

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$114.85

Value

$90.98

PnL

+$1.52

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Ryan Seggerman

Invested

$34

Value

$13.03

PnL

-$20.97

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

TRCM<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

3962-3193 (7155)

SchruteBucks

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$113.36

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$4.69

Record

56%

1868-1450 (3318)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Ryan Seggerman

Invested

$29.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.18

Record

85%

5899-1010 (6909)

Research grade

AvoidRyan Seggerman at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Seggerman

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Jonas Forejtek 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryan Seggerman wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.