Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Billy Harris, while the market favors Liam Broady (70%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Matsuyama: Billy Harris vs Liam Broady

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Billy Harris (38%) · Billy Harris at 31¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Billy Harris31¢Liam Broady69¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Billy Harris

Consensus Traders

Billy Harris 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 30.5¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilly Harris at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Billy Harris

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Liam Broady 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Billy Harris31%

Liam Broady70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Billy Harris5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares9,222

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Liam Broady8 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,892

Combined PnL+$512.23

Billy Harris — 38%Liam Broady — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Billy Harrisavg 49.6¢	$4.5K	$2.7K	$-1.8K	48% 216-238 (454)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Billy Harrisavg 53.7¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$626.79	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
└ Liam Broady leg	Liam Broadyavg 68.4¢	$985.76	$987.87	+$2.11
└ Billy Harris leg	Billy Harrisavg 53.7¢	$1.5K	$890.58	-$628.9
FE ferrariChampions2026	Liam Broadyavg 62.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$122.76	46% 33444-38932 (72376)
TH thirdt1me	Liam Broadyavg 53.9¢	$800.63	$1.0K	+$217.73	58% 212-156 (368)
VE Venusian	Liam Broadyavg 66.1¢	$649.79	$630.24	-$19.55	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
FL Flaznorp	Liam Broadyavg 58.8¢	$527.43	$613.92	+$86.49	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
TH thestingsnake	Liam Broadyavg 47.8¢	$448.58	$444.85	+$90.43	60% 4601-3105 (7706)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Billy Harrisavg 51.7¢	$127.63	$90.44	-$37.19	53% 6781-5933 (12714)
└ Billy Harris leg	Billy Harrisavg 51.7¢	$96.81	$58.93	-$37.88
└ Liam Broady leg	Liam Broadyavg 67¢	$30.82	$31.51	+$0.69
LI LightParadox<$100	Liam Broadyavg 70¢	$70	$68.5	-$1.5	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 35.1¢	$45.66	$40.95	-$4.71	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Billy Harrisavg 60.1¢	$292	$34.89	+$27.67	53% 851-753 (1604)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Liam Broadyavg 36¢	$16.2	$30.83	+$14.63	52% 6103-5604 (11707)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 57.2¢	$31.59	$30.51	-$1.09	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
38 38791873984189<$100	Liam Broadyavg 53¢	$4.24	$5.48	+$1.24	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 58.5¢	$9.36	$5.04	-$4.32	57% 20238-15055 (35293)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$4,465.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

216-238 (454)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$2,505.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$626.79

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

Both legs:

Liam Broady$985.7668.4¢+$2.11

Billy Harris$1,519.4853.7¢-$628.9

ferrariChampions2026

Liam Broady

Invested

$1,188.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$122.76

Record

46%

33444-38932 (72376)

thirdt1me

Liam Broady

Invested

$800.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$217.73

Record

58%

212-156 (368)

Venusian

Liam Broady

Invested

$649.79

Value

$630.24

PnL

-$19.55

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

Flaznorp

Liam Broady

Invested

$527.43

Value

$613.92

PnL

+$86.49

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

thestingsnake

Liam Broady

Invested

$448.58

Value

$444.85

PnL

+$90.43

Record

60%

4601-3105 (7706)

EulhunterARB<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$127.63

Value

$90.44

PnL

-$37.19

Record

53%

6781-5933 (12714)

Both legs:

Billy Harris$96.8151.7¢-$37.88

Liam Broady$30.8267¢+$0.69

LightParadox<$100

Liam Broady

Invested

$70

Value

$68.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

LimousinCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$45.66

Value

$40.95

PnL

-$4.71

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

1lovejumpCTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$292

Value

$34.89

PnL

+$27.67

Record

53%

851-753 (1604)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Liam Broady

Invested

$16.2

Value

$30.83

PnL

+$14.63

Record

52%

6103-5604 (11707)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$31.59

Value

$30.51

PnL

-$1.09

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

38791873984189<$100

Liam Broady

Invested

$4.24

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$9.36

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$4.32

Record

57%

20238-15055 (35293)

Research grade

NeutralBilly Harris at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Billy Harris

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Liam Broady 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Billy Harris wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.