Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Philip Sekulic, while the market favors August Holmgren (85%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Philip Sekulic

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Philip Sekulic (31%) · Philip Sekulic at 16¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

August Holmgren85¢Philip Sekulic15¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Philip Sekulic

Consensus Traders

Philip Sekulic 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$32.84

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 15.5¢

-57% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPhilip Sekulic at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Sekulic

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors August Holmgren 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

August Holmgren85%

Philip Sekulic16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Philip Sekulic4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,321

Combined PnL-$12.54

August Holmgren9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,117

Combined PnL+$45.38

Philip Sekulic — 31%August Holmgren — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Philip Sekulicavg 36¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$18.33	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
VE Venusian	August Holmgrenavg 63¢	$399.85	$406.2	+$6.35	24% 190-616 (806)
FL Flaznorp	August Holmgrenavg 63.8¢	$309.6	$303.13	-$6.48	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
TH thestingsnake	August Holmgrenavg 62.8¢	$300.55	$252.71	+$16.47	14% 52-322 (374)
LI LightParadox	August Holmgrenavg 66.7¢	$225.8	$245.82	+$20.02	23% 182-609 (791)
LI LimousinCTR	Philip Sekulicavg 34.1¢	$194.56	$200.76	+$6.2	23% 185-620 (805)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Philip Sekulicavg 30.6¢	$276.01	$166.04	-$99.17	31% 48-106 (154)
└ Philip Sekulic leg	Philip Sekulicavg 30.6¢	$225.92	$114.44	-$109.85
└ August Holmgren leg	August Holmgrenavg 67¢	$40.91	$51.6	+$10.69
RN1CTR	Philip Sekulicavg 35¢	$126.57	$128.38	+$1.81	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
VeryLucky888	August Holmgrenavg 62¢	$98.35	$106.28	+$7.93	46% 178-207 (385)
BA babybells<$100	August Holmgrenavg 64¢	$41.6	$41.93	+$0.33	14% 57-349 (406)
PA Pan9X<$100	August Holmgrenavg 63¢	$20.16	$21.44	+$1.28	48% 373-401 (774)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	August Holmgrenavg 66.3¢	$18.55	$17.92	-$0.63	10% 50-447 (497)
machinelearned<$100	August Holmgrenavg 63¢	$6.3	$6.4	+$0.1	28% 215-564 (779)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Philip Sekulicavg 33¢	$4.18	$1.96	-$2.22	24% 184-598 (782)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$1,696.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$18.33

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

Venusian

August Holmgren

Invested

$399.85

Value

$406.2

PnL

+$6.35

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

Flaznorp

August Holmgren

Invested

$309.6

Value

$303.13

PnL

-$6.48

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

thestingsnake

August Holmgren

Invested

$300.55

Value

$252.71

PnL

+$16.47

Record

14%

52-322 (374)

LightParadox

August Holmgren

Invested

$225.8

Value

$245.82

PnL

+$20.02

Record

23%

182-609 (791)

LimousinCTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$194.56

Value

$200.76

PnL

+$6.2

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$276.01

Value

$166.04

PnL

-$99.17

Record

31%

48-106 (154)

Both legs:

Philip Sekulic$225.9230.6¢-$109.85

August Holmgren$40.9167¢+$10.69

RN1CTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$126.57

Value

$128.38

PnL

+$1.81

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

VeryLucky888

August Holmgren

Invested

$98.35

Value

$106.28

PnL

+$7.93

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

babybells<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$41.6

Value

$41.93

PnL

+$0.33

Record

14%

57-349 (406)

Pan9X<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$20.16

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

373-401 (774)

BillBenter2026<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$18.55

Value

$17.92

PnL

-$0.63

Record

10%

50-447 (497)

machinelearned<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

215-564 (779)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$4.18

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$2.22

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

Research grade

AvoidPhilip Sekulic at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Sekulic

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors August Holmgren 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Philip Sekulic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.