Matsuyama: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yi Zhou

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yi Zhou (58%) · Yi Zhou at 90¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Takuya Kumasaka11¢Yi Zhou89¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yi Zhou

Consensus Traders

Yi Zhou 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$498.23

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 89.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYi Zhou at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yi Zhou

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Takuya Kumasaka11%

Yi Zhou90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yi Zhou7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,982

Combined PnL+$451.21

Takuya Kumasaka5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,956

Combined PnL+$47.02

Yi Zhou — 58%Takuya Kumasaka — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Vladooos	Yi Zhouavg 79¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$380	— 9-4 (13)
RN1CTR	Takuya Kumasakaavg 21¢	$618.04	$647.47	+$29.43	58% 3732-2688 (6420)
VeryLucky888CTR	Takuya Kumasakaavg 21¢	$511.56	$547.89	+$36.32	47% 197-220 (417)
VI vibing123	Yi Zhouavg 75¢	$420	$495.6	+$75.6	63% 1074-637 (1711)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Takuya Kumasakaavg 24.4¢	$205.65	$185.42	-$20.23	50% 1362-1381 (2743)
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 76.1¢	$93.78	$100.43	+$6.65
└ Takuya Kumasaka leg	Takuya Kumasakaavg 24.4¢	$111.88	$85	-$26.88
TH thirdt1me	Yi Zhouavg 87¢	$174	$175	+$1	30% 48-110 (158)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yi Zhouavg 73¢	$143.05	$88.2	+$24.52	48% 674-721 (1395)
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 73¢	$52.48	$51.76	-$0.72
└ Takuya Kumasaka leg	Takuya Kumasakaavg 21.4¢	$27.79	$36.44	+$25.24
EU Eulhunter<$100	Yi Zhouavg 73.5¢	$69.85	$69.83	-$0.02	52% 46-42 (88)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yi Zhouavg 87.3¢	$59.8	$55.49	-$4.3	56% 3771-2940 (6711)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Takuya Kumasakaavg 13¢	$60.88	$49.17	-$11.71	24% 197-623 (820)
machinelearned<$100	Yi Zhouavg 75¢	$49.2	$48.22	-$0.98	28% 225-570 (795)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Takuya Kumasakaavg 25¢	$16.25	$17.23	+$0.98	14% 57-354 (411)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Takuya Kumasakaavg 24.8¢	$14.9	$6.9	-$8	14% 54-323 (377)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yi Zhouavg 79¢	$4.37	$4.29	-$0.08	34% 158-308 (466)

Vladooos

Yi Zhou

Invested

$3,160

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$380

Record

—

9-4 (13)

RN1CTR

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$618.04

Value

$647.47

PnL

+$29.43

Record

58%

3732-2688 (6420)

VeryLucky888CTR

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$511.56

Value

$547.89

PnL

+$36.32

Record

47%

197-220 (417)

vibing123

Yi Zhou

Invested

$420

Value

$495.6

PnL

+$75.6

Record

63%

1074-637 (1711)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$205.65

Value

$185.42

PnL

-$20.23

Record

50%

1362-1381 (2743)

Both legs:

Yi Zhou$93.7876.1¢+$6.65

Takuya Kumasaka$111.8824.4¢-$26.88

thirdt1me

Yi Zhou

Invested

$174

Value

$175

PnL

+$1

Record

30%

48-110 (158)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$143.05

Value

$88.2

PnL

+$24.52

Record

48%

674-721 (1395)

Both legs:

Yi Zhou$52.4873¢-$0.72

Takuya Kumasaka$27.7921.4¢+$25.24

Eulhunter<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$69.85

Value

$69.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

46-42 (88)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$59.8

Value

$55.49

PnL

-$4.3

Record

56%

3771-2940 (6711)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$60.88

Value

$49.17

PnL

-$11.71

Record

24%

197-623 (820)

machinelearned<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$49.2

Value

$48.22

PnL

-$0.98

Record

28%

225-570 (795)

babybellsCTR<$100

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$16.25

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$0.98

Record

14%

57-354 (411)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$14.9

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$8

Record

14%

54-323 (377)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.08

Record

34%

158-308 (466)

Research grade

NeutralYi Zhou at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yi Zhou

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yi Zhou wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.