Matsuyama: Ryuki Matsuda vs Max Schoenhaus

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Max Schoenhaus (73%) · Max Schoenhaus at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 17

Ryuki Matsuda8¢Max Schoenhaus92¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Schoenhaus

Consensus Traders

Max Schoenhaus 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$119.62

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 92.5¢

+14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Schoenhaus at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Schoenhaus

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ryuki Matsuda8%

Max Schoenhaus93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Schoenhaus11 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,305

Combined PnL+$115.12

Ryuki Matsuda4 traders

Total Value$273.87

Total Shares2,139

Combined PnL+$4.5

Max Schoenhaus — 73%Ryuki Matsuda — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Max Schoenhaus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMax Schoenhaus 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Max Schoenhaus 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Max Schoenhausavg 83¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1.17	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
RN1	Max Schoenhausavg 79.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.74	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
0xheavy888	Max Schoenhausavg 82.1¢	$795.38	$813.96	+$18.58	56% 72-57 (129)
TH thirdt1me	Max Schoenhausavg 81.5¢	$326	$340.43	+$40.14	31% 48-106 (154)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 82¢	$255.89	$204.21	+$12.54	46% 178-207 (385)
└ Max Schoenhaus leg	Max Schoenhausavg 82¢	$110.52	$107.83	-$1.92
└ Ryuki Matsuda leg	Ryuki Matsudaavg 17¢	$81.93	$96.39	+$14.46
FL Flaznorp	Max Schoenhausavg 73¢	$147.36	$188.67	+$41.31	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
VE VenusianCTR	Ryuki Matsudaavg 18¢	$190.47	$179.94	-$10.53	24% 190-616 (806)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Max Schoenhausavg 82.6¢	$143.38	$142.17	-$1.2	56% 3771-2936 (6707)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ryuki Matsudaavg 7¢	$70	$85	+$15	48% 644-687 (1331)
BA babybells<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 86¢	$76.45	$75.1	-$1.35	14% 57-349 (406)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 85¢	$90.31	$70.28	+$1.22	14% 52-322 (374)
MA MadridTime<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 82¢	$40.18	$45.82	+$5.64	24% 184-598 (782)
PA Pan9X<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 82¢	$31.98	$32.76	+$0.78	48% 373-401 (774)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Ryuki Matsudaavg 8¢	$4.48	$4.76	+$0.28	52% 45-41 (86)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.2	+$0.1	20% 116-466 (582)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ryuki Matsudaavg 18¢	$4.42	$4.17	-$0.25	23% 182-609 (791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$1,905.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

RN1

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$1,216

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.74

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

0xheavy888

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$795.38

Value

$813.96

PnL

+$18.58

Record

56%

72-57 (129)

thirdt1me

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$326

Value

$340.43

PnL

+$40.14

Record

31%

48-106 (154)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$255.89

Value

$204.21

PnL

+$12.54

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

Both legs:

Max Schoenhaus$110.5282¢-$1.92

Ryuki Matsuda$81.9317¢+$14.46

Flaznorp

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$147.36

Value

$188.67

PnL

+$41.31

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

VenusianCTR

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$190.47

Value

$179.94

PnL

-$10.53

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$143.38

Value

$142.17

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

3771-2936 (6707)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$70

Value

$85

PnL

+$15

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

babybells<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$76.45

Value

$75.1

PnL

-$1.35

Record

14%

57-349 (406)

thestingsnake<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$90.31

Value

$70.28

PnL

+$1.22

Record

14%

52-322 (374)

MadridTime<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$40.18

Value

$45.82

PnL

+$5.64

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

Pan9X<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$31.98

Value

$32.76

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

373-401 (774)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

45-41 (86)

ameisgoat11<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.25

Record

23%

182-609 (791)

Research grade

NeutralMax Schoenhaus at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Max Schoenhaus

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Max Schoenhaus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMax Schoenhaus 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Max Schoenhaus 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Schoenhaus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.