BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Michelsen (38%) · Alex Michelsen at 79¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 17

Alex Michelsen79¢Juan Manuel Cerundolo21¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Michelsen

Consensus Traders

Alex Michelsen 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.1K

Combined PnL

-$162.31

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alex Michelsen79%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Michelsen5 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares38,302

Combined PnL+$92.61

Juan Manuel Cerundolo8 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares39,281

Combined PnL-$254.92

Alex Michelsen — 38%Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on Alex Michelsen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAlex Michelsen 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJuan Manuel Cerundolo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlex Michelsen 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alex Michelsen 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stuttig	Alex Michelsenavg 78.1¢	$25.2K	$25.3K	+$128.05	— 5-0 (5)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22.6¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$234.26	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 78¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$6.67	56% 100-79 (179)
└ Alex Michelsen leg	Alex Michelsenavg 78¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$13.33
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$880	$860	-$20
RR rrooster	Alex Michelsenavg 78¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$30	34% 14-27 (41)
RN1CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 21.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$13.35	58% 3746-2703 (6449)
FL Flaznorp	Alex Michelsenavg 77¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0	51% 3157-3056 (6213)
DA darkumbreon88	Alex Michelsenavg 77¢	$862.26	$856.66	-$5.6	61% 891-567 (1458)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 21.6¢	$1.0K	$629.44	+$4.03	48% 752-814 (1566)
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 21.6¢	$435.42	$433.19	-$2.22
└ Alex Michelsen leg	Alex Michelsenavg 77.5¢	$193.83	$196.25	+$6.25
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$513.09	$501.43	-$11.66	34% 164-316 (480)
FY fydiCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$440	$440	+$0	— 2-1 (3)
PA Pan9X	Alex Michelsenavg 77.5¢	$127.58	$127.74	+$0.16	48% 407-443 (850)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 22¢	$88	$92	+$4	8% 71-770 (841)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 21¢	$21	$21.5	+$0.5	52% 51-48 (99)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 23¢	$10.15	$10	-$0.15	8% 35-419 (454)

stuttig

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$25,212.18

Value

$25.3K

PnL

+$128.05

Record

—

5-0 (5)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$4,714.06

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$234.26

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,959.48

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$6.67

Record

56%

100-79 (179)

Both legs:

Alex Michelsen$2,079.4878¢+$13.33

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$88022¢-$20

rrooster

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,339.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$30

Record

34%

14-27 (41)

RN1CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,640.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$13.35

Record

58%

3746-2703 (6449)

Flaznorp

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,345.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

6512395314597884CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3157-3056 (6213)

darkumbreon88

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$862.26

Value

$856.66

PnL

-$5.6

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,016.92

Value

$629.44

PnL

+$4.03

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$435.4221.6¢-$2.22

Alex Michelsen$193.8377.5¢+$6.25

omnibus-076daaCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$513.09

Value

$501.43

PnL

-$11.66

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

fydiCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$440

Value

$440

PnL

+$0

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Pan9X

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$127.58

Value

$127.74

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$88

Value

$92

PnL

+$4

Record

71-770 (841)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$21

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

51-48 (99)

hi774cCTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.15

Record

35-419 (454)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on Alex Michelsen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAlex Michelsen 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJuan Manuel Cerundolo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlex Michelsen 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alex Michelsen 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Michelsen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.