Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Timo Legout, while the market favors Petr Nesterov (53%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Petr Nesterov vs Timo Legout

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Timo Legout (67%) · Timo Legout at 48¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 17

Petr Nesterov53¢Timo Legout47¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Timo Legout

Consensus Traders

Timo Legout 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 47.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralTimo Legout at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timo Legout

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Petr Nesterov 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Petr Nesterov53%

Timo Legout48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timo Legout10 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares36,231

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Petr Nesterov5 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares28,790

Combined PnL-$799.81

Timo Legout — 67%Petr Nesterov — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Timo Legoutavg 45¢	$10.0K	$8.8K	$-1.2K	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
MA MadridTime	Petr Nesterovavg 51.1¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$82.53	25% 215-633 (848)
LI LightParadox	Petr Nesterovavg 55.2¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$296.52	25% 214-643 (857)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Timo Legoutavg 45¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$245	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
LI Limousin	Petr Nesterovavg 59.9¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$225.88	25% 213-654 (867)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Timo Legoutavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$16.02	5% 21-411 (432)
VE Venusian	Petr Nesterovavg 59.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$186.04	25% 213-654 (867)
38 38791873984189CTR	Timo Legoutavg 50.2¢	$936.96	$924.54	-$12.42	48% 859-937 (1796)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Timo Legoutavg 42.4¢	$413.9	$395.28	-$18.62	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
0xheavy888CTR	Timo Legoutavg 74¢	$382.57	$385.16	+$2.58	55% 106-86 (192)
BA babybellsCTR	Timo Legoutavg 51.2¢	$141.12	$111.73	-$29.39	18% 78-366 (444)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Timo Legoutavg 46.6¢	$72.57	$76.83	+$4.26	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
└ Timo Legout leg	Timo Legoutavg 46.6¢	$43.77	$46.53	+$2.76
└ Petr Nesterov leg	Petr Nesterovavg 48¢	$28.8	$30.3	+$1.5
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 39¢	$62.79	$66.82	+$4.02	38% 87-145 (232)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 55.9¢	$47.51	$38.68	-$8.83	14% 73-461 (534)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 73¢	$24.09	$24.59	+$0.5	49% 231-239 (470)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.73	+$0.08	24% 157-504 (661)

6512395314597884CTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$9,989.14

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

MadridTime

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$6,807.43

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$82.53

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

LightParadox

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$4,389.55

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$296.52

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$3,151.98

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$245

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

Limousin

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$3,089.46

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$225.88

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$1,409.78

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$16.02

Record

21-411 (432)

Venusian

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$1,360.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$186.04

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

38791873984189CTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$936.96

Value

$924.54

PnL

-$12.42

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

FlaznorpCTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$413.9

Value

$395.28

PnL

-$18.62

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

0xheavy888CTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$382.57

Value

$385.16

PnL

+$2.58

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

babybellsCTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$141.12

Value

$111.73

PnL

-$29.39

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$72.57

Value

$76.83

PnL

+$4.26

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

Both legs:

Timo Legout$43.7746.6¢+$2.76

Petr Nesterov$28.848¢+$1.5

ojgCTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$62.79

Value

$66.82

PnL

+$4.02

Record

38%

87-145 (232)

BillBenter2026<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$47.51

Value

$38.68

PnL

-$8.83

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$24.09

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

Research grade

NeutralTimo Legout at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Timo Legout

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Petr Nesterov 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timo Legout wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.