Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Karl Poling, while the market favors Filip Jeff Planinsek (51%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Filip Jeff Planinsek vs Karl Poling

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Karl Poling (50%) · Karl Poling at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Filip Jeff Planinsek51¢Karl Poling49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karl Poling

Consensus Traders

Karl Poling 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$84.96

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 49¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarl Poling at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karl Poling

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Filip Jeff Planinsek 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Filip Jeff Planinsek51%

Karl Poling49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karl Poling6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,285

Combined PnL+$532.28

Filip Jeff Planinsek6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,579

Combined PnL-$617.24

Karl Poling — 50%Filip Jeff Planinsek — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 85.5¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$353.2	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 85.5¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$440.88
└ Karl Poling leg	Karl Polingavg 31.8¢	$385.03	$472.71	+$87.68
VE VenusianCTR	Karl Polingavg 52.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$79.23	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LimousinCTR	Karl Polingavg 24.1¢	$914.76	$1.4K	+$488.42	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadox	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 58.5¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$260.68	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
MA MadridTime	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 79¢	$1.0K	$669.26	-$360.61	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1ARB<$100	Karl Polingavg 30.3¢	$199.34	$297.55	+$98.21	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 34¢	$85.37	$158.18	+$72.81
└ Karl Poling leg	Karl Polingavg 30.3¢	$113.97	$139.37	+$25.4
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Karl Polingavg 24.9¢	$107.74	$214.22	+$106.48	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 51.5¢	$62.5	$60.09	-$2.41	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Karl Polingavg 40.5¢	$49.69	$54.48	+$4.79	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 76.1¢	$49.45	$51.35	+$1.9	57% 20227-15044 (35271)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Karl Polingavg 38.4¢	$31.2	$41.82	+$10.61	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
TRCMCTR<$100	Karl Polingavg 47¢	$22.77	$23.98	+$1.21	55% 4121-3315 (7436)
VeryLucky888<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 46¢	$25.09	$16.56	+$5.02	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 63.3¢	$12.65	$12.2	-$0.45	60% 4593-3091 (7684)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,924.55

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$353.2

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Filip Jeff Planinsek$1,539.5285.5¢-$440.88

Karl Poling$385.0331.8¢+$87.68

VenusianCTR

Karl Poling

Invested

$1,495.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$79.23

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LimousinCTR

Karl Poling

Invested

$914.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$488.42

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadox

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,288.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$260.68

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

MadridTime

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,029.87

Value

$669.26

PnL

-$360.61

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1ARB<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$199.34

Value

$297.55

PnL

+$98.21

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Filip Jeff Planinsek$85.3734¢+$72.81

Karl Poling$113.9730.3¢+$25.4

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Karl Poling

Invested

$107.74

Value

$214.22

PnL

+$106.48

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$62.5

Value

$60.09

PnL

-$2.41

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$49.69

Value

$54.48

PnL

+$4.79

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

BillBenter2026<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$49.45

Value

$51.35

PnL

+$1.9

Record

57%

20227-15044 (35271)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$31.2

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$10.61

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

TRCMCTR<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$22.77

Value

$23.98

PnL

+$1.21

Record

55%

4121-3315 (7436)

VeryLucky888<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$25.09

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$5.02

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

thestingsnake<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$12.65

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$0.45

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

Research grade

NeutralKarl Poling at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Karl Poling

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Filip Jeff Planinsek 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karl Poling wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.