BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (58%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 57¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 18

Lorenzo Sonego57¢Alejandro Tabilo43¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

-$15.14

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Sonego57%

Alejandro Tabilo43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego7 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares20,585

Combined PnL-$95.04

Alejandro Tabilo5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares19,515

Combined PnL+$79.9

Lorenzo Sonego — 58%Alejandro Tabilo — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Sonego 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Sonego 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$8.7K	$8.6K	-$75	— 4-0 (4)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢	$7.7K	$7.8K	+$91.36	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
VeryLucky888	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$18.53	51% 361-341 (702)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 57.6¢	$636.48	$637.48	+$1	18% 77-360 (437)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 57.6¢	$489.48	$488.73	-$0.75
└ Alejandro Tabilo leg	Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢	$147	$148.75	+$1.75
NM NM-P	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 57.6¢	$478.73	$477.88	-$0.84	60% 3455-2348 (5803)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢	$390.7	$381.4	-$9.3	1% 3-362 (365)
FL Flaznorp	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$286.52	$286.52	+$0	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢	$97.67	$95.34	-$2.33	2% 7-382 (389)
SE sentrio<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$65.35	$65.35	+$0	35% 280-514 (794)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$65.38	$64.82	-$0.56	61% 910-582 (1492)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 41¢	$25.76	$25.76	+$0	29% 322-803 (1125)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 40¢	$6.8	$6.97	+$0.17	29% 332-810 (1142)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58.5¢	$5.85	$5.75	-$0.1	28% 205-534 (739)

sbimbg

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$8,699.94

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$75

Record

—

4-0 (4)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$7,674.29

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$91.36

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

VeryLucky888

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,426.41

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$18.53

Record

51%

361-341 (702)

GC-PARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$636.48

Value

$637.48

PnL

+$1

Record

18%

77-360 (437)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$489.4857.6¢-$0.75

Alejandro Tabilo$14742¢+$1.75

NM-P

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$478.73

Value

$477.88

PnL

-$0.84

Record

60%

3455-2348 (5803)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$390.7

Value

$381.4

PnL

-$9.3

Record

3-362 (365)

Flaznorp

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$286.52

Value

$286.52

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$97.67

Value

$95.34

PnL

-$2.33

Record

7-382 (389)

sentrio<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$65.35

Value

$65.35

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

darkumbreon88<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$65.38

Value

$64.82

PnL

-$0.56

Record

61%

910-582 (1492)

VenusianCTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$25.76

Value

$25.76

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

322-803 (1125)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0.17

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

28%

205-534 (739)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Sonego 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Sonego 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 56% · 9

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.