Consensus PnL $269K · win rate 90% (125–14, n=139) · PM monthly #536 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$269.4K
Record
125W / 14L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 139 settled
Batting Avg
69.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#240
Source
PM monthly #536 + pinned
Trades
18,259
Markets
253
Volume
$25.5M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 12 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $111K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $104K · now 84¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $38K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $29K · now 70¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $28K · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $24K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $23K · now 89¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $16K · now 75¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (42% of 38)
Specialties
208 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 91¢- Elections
+4 pts
side won 94% of 35 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 95¢
ROI 0%
- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 79% of 14 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 92% of 12 at an average 92¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 33% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 75% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 98% of 188)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.