Will KAA Gent win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

-$799.54

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares16,143

Combined PnL-$727.67

No6 traders

Total Value$844.36

Total Shares2,857

Combined PnL-$71.88

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 84.3¢	$7.6K	$6.9K	-$709.43	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
PE pelik	Yesavg 99.9¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$2.5	99% 5182-74 (5256)
RN1	Yesavg 82.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$109.24	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
fraj0la	Yesavg 68.5¢	$1.0K	$998.99	-$14.24	63% 257-151 (408)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 30¢	$690.84	$748.41	+$57.57	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 86¢	$654.15	$475.78	-$178.37	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 67¢	$150.8	$151.92	+$1.13	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
dips.	Yesavg 55.8¢	$75.94	$135.96	+$60.02	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$65.14	$66.07	+$0.93	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$12.41	$12.94	+$0.53	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 11.6¢	$38.83	$9.33	-$29.5	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$7.95	$7.6	-$0.35	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$5	$6.49	+$1.49	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
E2 0xe23c...5ae7CTR	Noavg 13¢	$473.96	$0.01	-$101.06	—

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$7,595.71

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$709.43

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

pelik

Yes

Invested

$4,989.99

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$2.5

Record

99%

5182-74 (5256)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,830

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$109.24

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,013.23

Value

$998.99

PnL

-$14.24

Record

63%

257-151 (408)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$690.84

Value

$748.41

PnL

+$57.57

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$654.15

Value

$475.78

PnL

-$178.37

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$150.8

Value

$151.92

PnL

+$1.13

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$75.94

Value

$135.96

PnL

+$60.02

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$65.14

Value

$66.07

PnL

+$0.93

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$0.53

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$38.83

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$29.5

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$1.49

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

0xe23c...5ae7CTR

Invested

$473.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$101.06

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.