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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10AM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 38%

Total Value

$957.5

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,747

Combined PnL$-4.2K

Down5 traders

Total Value$957.5

Total Shares957

Combined PnL+$290.8

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 54¢	$2.9K	—	$-2.0K	67% 99930-48305 (148235)
AN Anon455CTR	Upavg 68.8¢	$2.3K	—	$-1.6K	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 45.4¢	$374.01	$633.15	+$259.14	12% 18332-133021 (151353)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Upavg 62¢	$851.61	—	-$626.46	57% 6774-5010 (11784)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 75.4¢	$215.44	$223.05	+$7.6	59% 22850-16209 (39059)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$42.8	$68.33	+$25.53	51% 8396-7911 (16307)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 87¢	$30.55	$22.97	-$7.58	55% 50150-40327 (90477)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 39¢	$3.9	$10	+$6.1	58% 38482-27564 (66046)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 20368-19455 (39823)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$2,890.48

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

67%

99930-48305 (148235)

Invested

$2,303.39

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

Invested

$374.01

Value

$633.15

PnL

+$259.14

Record

12%

18332-133021 (151353)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Invested

$851.61

Value

—

PnL

-$626.46

Record

57%

6774-5010 (11784)

Invested

$215.44

Value

$223.05

PnL

+$7.6

Record

59%

22850-16209 (39059)

Invested

$42.8

Value

$68.33

PnL

+$25.53

Record

51%

8396-7911 (16307)

Invested

$30.55

Value

$22.97

PnL

-$7.58

Record

55%

50150-40327 (90477)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.1

Record

58%

38482-27564 (66046)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20368-19455 (39823)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x804c84fa...a521b4

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-november-1-2026-10am-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

Anon455

Up — $0

Hsilverbasher

Down — $633.15

peepeepoopoo24

Up — $0

rabadabadoo

Down — $223.05

ply-pm2

Down — $68.33

bosona

Down — $22.97

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $10

devonpoll

Up — $0

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