Trabzonspor vs. Petkim Spor

1 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Trabzonspor (8%) · Trabzonspor at 68¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 14

Trabzonspor68¢Petkim Spor32¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trabzonspor

Consensus Traders

Trabzonspor 8%

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$431.19

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

1 of 12 top traders (8%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trabzonspor68%

Petkim Spor33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trabzonspor1 trader

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares30,276

Combined PnL+$631.84

Petkim Spor11 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares12,766

Combined PnL-$200.65

Trabzonspor — 8%Petkim Spor — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Trabzonspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePetkim Spor 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpTrabzonspor 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPetkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetkim Spor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Trabzonsporavg 65.4¢	$19.8K	$20.4K	+$631.84	76% 64-20 (84)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Petkim Sporavg 36.1¢	$1.0K	$931.99	-$88.1	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Petkim Sporavg 35.1¢	$1,000	$910.85	-$32.22	48% 4049-4326 (8375)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Petkim Sporavg 35.9¢	$822.66	$880.26	+$57.6	57% 4276-3204 (7480)
tradecraftCTR	Petkim Sporavg 34.2¢	$532.67	$514.48	-$18.19	51% 6508-6273 (12781)
GT gt7238CTR	Petkim Sporavg 38.1¢	$463.19	$389.41	-$73.78	45% 666-823 (1489)
SE sentrioCTR	Petkim Sporavg 34.7¢	$312.17	$298.11	-$14.43	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
VeryLucky888CTR	Petkim Sporavg 38¢	$140.44	$118.39	-$14.65	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 37.1¢	$60.66	$52.39	-$8.27	49% 267-278 (545)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 39.2¢	$28.26	$23.06	-$5.2	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 35¢	$17.5	$16.5	-$1	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 38¢	$15.22	$12.8	-$2.42	69% 151-67 (218)

stepanka1234

Trabzonspor

Invested

$19,804.5

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$631.84

Record

76%

64-20 (84)

FlaznorpCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$1,020.09

Value

$931.99

PnL

-$88.1

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

NotradecopyCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$1,000

Value

$910.85

PnL

-$32.22

Record

48%

4049-4326 (8375)

Bagwell306CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$822.66

Value

$880.26

PnL

+$57.6

Record

57%

4276-3204 (7480)

tradecraftCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$532.67

Value

$514.48

PnL

-$18.19

Record

51%

6508-6273 (12781)

gt7238CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$463.19

Value

$389.41

PnL

-$73.78

Record

45%

666-823 (1489)

sentrioCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$312.17

Value

$298.11

PnL

-$14.43

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

VeryLucky888CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$140.44

Value

$118.39

PnL

-$14.65

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$60.66

Value

$52.39

PnL

-$8.27

Record

49%

267-278 (545)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$28.26

Value

$23.06

PnL

-$5.2

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$17.5

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

biying88888CTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$15.22

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$2.42

Record

69%

151-67 (218)

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

1 of 12 top traders (8%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Trabzonspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePetkim Spor 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpTrabzonspor 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPetkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetkim Spor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trabzonspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.