Shimane Susanoo Magic vs. Toyama Grouses

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic (69%) · Shimane Susanoo Magic at 97¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Shimane Susanoo Magic97¢Toyama Grouses3¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Consensus Traders

Shimane Susanoo Magic 69%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$454.68

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 96.5¢

+43% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Shimane Susanoo Magic97%

Toyama Grouses4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shimane Susanoo Magic9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,682

Combined PnL+$659.29

Toyama Grouses4 traders

Total Value$30.45

Total Shares623

Combined PnL-$204.61

Shimane Susanoo Magic — 69%Toyama Grouses — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Shimane Susanoo Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Shimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 64.5¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$754.49	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 62¢	$782.62	$965.65	+$183.03	50% 3068-3023 (6091)
NO Notradecopy	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 66¢	$1,000	$954.54	-$7.58	48% 4192-4518 (8710)
SN SnakeBall	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 95.8¢	$865.67	$525.6	-$340.07	50% 49196-48732 (97928)
BA Bagwell306	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 76¢	$151.99	$152.99	+$1	47% 4795-5301 (10096)
SE sentrio	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 79.8¢	$155	$148.61	-$6.39	51% 28769-28143 (56912)
tradecraft	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 63¢	$97.08	$144.98	+$47.9	51% 6908-6567 (13475)
38 38791873984189	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 64.5¢	$160.65	$128.8	+$27	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
VI vibing123CTR	Toyama Grousesavg 44.2¢	$215.08	$28.3	-$186.78	51% 1778-1679 (3457)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 78.5¢	$3.93	$3.83	-$0.1	50% 24101-24191 (48292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 44.2¢	$14.46	$1.14	-$13.32	45% 2614-3160 (5774)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 39.2¢	$5.68	$0.51	-$4.71	46% 2696-3123 (5819)
dips.CTR<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 3¢	$0.3	$0.5	+$0.2	48% 17767-19491 (37258)

Flaznorp

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$1,881.03

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$754.49

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$782.62

Value

$965.65

PnL

+$183.03

Record

50%

3068-3023 (6091)

Notradecopy

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$1,000

Value

$954.54

PnL

-$7.58

Record

48%

4192-4518 (8710)

SnakeBall

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$865.67

Value

$525.6

PnL

-$340.07

Record

50%

49196-48732 (97928)

Bagwell306

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$151.99

Value

$152.99

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

4795-5301 (10096)

sentrio

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$155

Value

$148.61

PnL

-$6.39

Record

51%

28769-28143 (56912)

tradecraft

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$97.08

Value

$144.98

PnL

+$47.9

Record

51%

6908-6567 (13475)

38791873984189

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$160.65

Value

$128.8

PnL

+$27

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

vibing123CTR

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$215.08

Value

$28.3

PnL

-$186.78

Record

51%

1778-1679 (3457)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

24101-24191 (48292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$14.46

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$13.32

Record

45%

2614-3160 (5774)

LimousinCTR<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$5.68

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$4.71

Record

46%

2696-3123 (5819)

dips.CTR<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

17767-19491 (37258)

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Shimane Susanoo Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Shimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shimane Susanoo Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.