Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-11-07?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 54¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

-$51.91

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares19,334

Combined PnL+$34.64

No13 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares19,218

Combined PnL-$86.55

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 46.3¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$34.64	47% 206-230 (436)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 53.8¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$8.79	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 53.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$3.3	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 55.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$81.5	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$15.51	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 54¢	$730.2	$723.44	-$6.76	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
NM NM-P	Noavg 53.3¢	$526.48	$527.97	+$1.5	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-P	Noavg 53.4¢	$426.08	$426.63	+$0.55	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
SE sentrio	Noavg 54.2¢	$202.27	$199.81	-$2.46	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$200	$198	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$106	+$11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$11
FO forecastication4<$100	Noavg 54¢	$44.28	$43.46	-$0.82	50% 1412-1412 (2824)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$22.71	$22.19	-$0.52	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 53¢	$11	$11.1	+$0.1	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$10.7	$10.7	+$0	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 54¢	$3.2	$3.14	-$0.06	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,955.63

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$34.64

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,664.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$8.79

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,319.56

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$3.3

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LightParadox

Invested

$2,008.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$81.5

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$1,643.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15.51

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

SnakeBall

Invested

$730.2

Value

$723.44

PnL

-$6.76

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

NM-P

Invested

$526.48

Value

$527.97

PnL

+$1.5

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-P

Invested

$426.08

Value

$426.63

PnL

+$0.55

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

sentrio

Invested

$202.27

Value

$199.81

PnL

-$2.46

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

No$10050¢+$11

Yes$10050¢-$11

forecastication4<$100

Invested

$44.28

Value

$43.46

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

1412-1412 (2824)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$22.71

Value

$22.19

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.