Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Western Michigan Broncos

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan Broncos (75%) · Western Michigan Broncos at 96¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Campbell Fighting Camels5¢Western Michigan Broncos95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Western Michigan Broncos

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan Broncos 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$627.02

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 95.5¢

+39% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidWestern Michigan Broncos at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan Broncos

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Campbell Fighting Camels5%

Western Michigan Broncos96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan Broncos9 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,694

Combined PnL-$398.91

Campbell Fighting Camels3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,619

Combined PnL-$228.11

Western Michigan Broncos — 75%Campbell Fighting Camels — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWestern Michigan Broncos 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan Broncos 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan Broncos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan Broncos 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Western Michigan Broncosavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0.28	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
nigiri99CTR	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 36¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$22.45	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
FL Flaznorp	Western Michigan Broncosavg 91.6¢	$1.3K	$904.82	-$435.42	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Western Michigan Broncosavg 76¢	$970	$895	-$75	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
HI hi774c	Western Michigan Broncosavg 64¢	$1.3K	$845.08	+$6.55	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
RN1	Western Michigan Broncosavg 68.5¢	$768.42	$731.7	-$36.73	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 24.1¢	$770.74	$650.95	-$119.79	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 55.3¢	$226.2	$357.63	+$131.43
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 24.1¢	$544.54	$293.32	-$251.22
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 29.5¢	$444.71	$370.06	-$74.65	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 29.5¢	$294.82	$210.02	-$84.8
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 74¢	$149.89	$160.05	+$10.16
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 66¢	$344.45	$367.65	+$23.2	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
└ Western Michigan Broncos leg	Western Michigan Broncosavg 66¢	$203.28	$246.34	+$43.06
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 23.3¢	$141.17	$121.31	-$19.86
0xheavy888	Western Michigan Broncosavg 64.3¢	$363.96	$365.02	+$1.06	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
38 38791873984189	Western Michigan Broncosavg 53¢	$252	$355.55	+$132.05	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VE VenusianCTR	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 24.3¢	$293.1	$187.53	-$105.57	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 37.1¢	$189.45	$89.36	-$100.09	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
PA Pan9X<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 55.1¢	$76.21	$57.62	+$8.46	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Western Michigan Broncosavg 67¢	$6.6	$6.45	-$0.15	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

HomeRunHazard

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$1,781.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

nigiri99CTR

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$1,619.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$22.45

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Flaznorp

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$1,340.24

Value

$904.82

PnL

-$435.42

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$970

Value

$895

PnL

-$75

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

hi774c

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$1,310.2

Value

$845.08

PnL

+$6.55

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

RN1

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$768.42

Value

$731.7

PnL

-$36.73

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

LimousinARB<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$770.74

Value

$650.95

PnL

-$119.79

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Both legs:

Western Michigan Broncos$226.255.3¢+$131.43

Campbell Fighting Camels$544.5424.1¢-$251.22

MadridTimeARB<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$444.71

Value

$370.06

PnL

-$74.65

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Both legs:

Campbell Fighting Camels$294.8229.5¢-$84.8

Western Michigan Broncos$149.8974¢+$10.16

LightParadoxARB<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$344.45

Value

$367.65

PnL

+$23.2

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Both legs:

Western Michigan Broncos$203.2866¢+$43.06

Campbell Fighting Camels$141.1723.3¢-$19.86

0xheavy888

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$363.96

Value

$365.02

PnL

+$1.06

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

38791873984189

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$252

Value

$355.55

PnL

+$132.05

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

VenusianCTR

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$293.1

Value

$187.53

PnL

-$105.57

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$189.45

Value

$89.36

PnL

-$100.09

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

Pan9X<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$76.21

Value

$57.62

PnL

+$8.46

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ameisgoat11<$100

Western Michigan Broncos

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidWestern Michigan Broncos at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan Broncos

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWestern Michigan Broncos 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWestern Michigan Broncos 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWestern Michigan Broncos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Western Michigan Broncos 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.