Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders (91%) · Texas Tech Red Raiders at 51¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 11

Illinois Fighting Illini50¢Texas Tech Red Raiders50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech Red Raiders 91%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$90.03

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas Tech Red Raiders at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Illinois Fighting Illini50%

Texas Tech Red Raiders51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech Red Raiders10 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares14,572

Combined PnL+$89.83

Illinois Fighting Illini1 trader

Total Value$10

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.2

Texas Tech Red Raiders — 91%Illinois Fighting Illini — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech Red Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTexas Tech Red Raiders 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech Red Raiders 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 49.6¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$100.5	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Illinois Fighting Illini leg	Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 49.6¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$37.24
└ Texas Tech Red Raiders leg	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$63.26
GL glennyorkshire	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0	46% 33-39 (72)
HI hi774c	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$22.29	8% 37-422 (459)
BA bands1	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.78	50% 331-328 (659)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49.1¢	$857.79	$639.38	+$18.85	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Texas Tech Red Raiders leg	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49.1¢	$371.36	$378.31	+$14.5
└ Illinois Fighting Illini leg	Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 49.2¢	$256.73	$261.08	+$4.35
FO forecastication4	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$526.31	$548.24	+$21.93	11% 24-189 (213)
0xheavy888	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$319.68	$333	+$13.32	56% 119-94 (213)
FL Flaznorp	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48.4¢	$249.28	$257.5	+$8.22	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	10% 85-781 (866)
VeryLucky888	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49.2¢	$348.29	$98.95	+$7.22	50% 262-258 (520)
SE sentrio<$100	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48.3¢	$53.77	$55.48	+$1.71	32% 184-398 (582)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49.5¢	$18.76	$12.5	+$0.37	49% 440-464 (904)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 49¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	26% 177-517 (694)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Illinois Fighting Illini

Invested

$7,264.45

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$100.5

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Illinois Fighting Illini$4,197.649.6¢+$37.24

Texas Tech Red Raiders$3,066.8549¢+$63.26

glennyorkshire

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$2,316.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

hi774c

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$2,020.33

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$22.29

Record

37-422 (459)

bands1

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$1,477.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.78

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$857.79

Value

$639.38

PnL

+$18.85

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Texas Tech Red Raiders$371.3649.1¢+$14.5

Illinois Fighting Illini$256.7349.2¢+$4.35

forecastication4

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$526.31

Value

$548.24

PnL

+$21.93

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

0xheavy888

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$319.68

Value

$333

PnL

+$13.32

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

Flaznorp

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$249.28

Value

$257.5

PnL

+$8.22

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

85-781 (866)

VeryLucky888

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$348.29

Value

$98.95

PnL

+$7.22

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

sentrio<$100

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$53.77

Value

$55.48

PnL

+$1.71

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

Pan9X<$100

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$18.76

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Illinois Fighting Illini

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidTexas Tech Red Raiders at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech Red Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTexas Tech Red Raiders 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech Red Raiders 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech Red Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.