Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Twente vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (85%) · Over at 35¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 5

Over35¢Under65¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$282.7

Smart Money Entry

37.1¢ → 34.5¢

-7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares20,263

Combined PnL+$10.18

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,027

Combined PnL-$292.88

Over — 85%Under — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 37.7¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$67.48	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Underavg 68.4¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$295	53% 228-206 (434)
RN1CTR	Overavg 37¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 34.9¢	$741.05	$783.59	+$42.55	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 37¢	$656.65	$656.65	+$26.62	46% 5200-6047 (11247)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 38¢	$228	$231	+$3	51% 1899-1850 (3749)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 37.5¢	$150	$148	+$0	56% 7911-6321 (14232)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 34.5¢	$93.16	$99.91	+$6.76	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 61¢	$84.28	$86	+$1.72	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$52.46	$52.89	+$0.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 37¢	$31.82	$33.11	+$1.29
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 62.8¢	$21.32	$23.43	+$2.12	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 37.4¢	$15.32	$15.17	-$0.15	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$13.74	$13.32	-$0.42	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 40.2¢	$13.17	$12.12	-$1.04	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.85	+$0.35	50% 25814-25509 (51323)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$3,777.56

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$67.48

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Under

Invested

$2,734.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$295

Record

53%

228-206 (434)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,850

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$741.05

Value

$783.59

PnL

+$42.55

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$656.65

Value

$656.65

PnL

+$26.62

Record

46%

5200-6047 (11247)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$228

Value

$231

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

1899-1850 (3749)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$150

Value

$148

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

7911-6321 (14232)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.16

Value

$99.91

PnL

+$6.76

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$84.28

Value

$86

PnL

+$1.72

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

Both legs:

Invested

$21.32

Value

$23.43

PnL

+$2.12

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.32

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.74

Value

$13.32

PnL

-$0.42

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.17

Value

$12.12

PnL

-$1.04

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.