Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Group C
12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (86%) · FORZE Reload at 76¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
FORZE Reload
14
FORZE Reload 86%
1 arb excluded
$47.3K
-$156.96
74.1¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralFORZE Reload at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on FORZE Reload. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | FORZE Reloadavg 74¢ | $18.7K | $18.7K | +$5.13 | 56% 378-298 (676) |
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18 | FORZE Reloadavg 74.1¢ | $16.6K | $17.1K | +$531.18 | 51% 708-691 (1399) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | MOUZ NXTavg 25.9¢ | $8.1K | $7.3K | -$759.86 | 53% 120-105 (225) |
SE sentrio | FORZE Reloadavg 74¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
BI BillBenter2026 | FORZE Reloadavg 73.9¢ | $996.88 | $1.0K | +$48.83 | 12% 59-453 (512) |
IW iWasEnough | FORZE Reloadavg 74¢ | $539.72 | $539.72 | -$0 | — |
31 319113331313111 | FORZE Reloadavg 76.3¢ | $317.35 | $316.83 | -$0.52 | 35% 27-51 (78) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | FORZE Reloadavg 75.1¢ | $296.66 | $302.01 | +$5.36 | 54% 1606-1351 (2957) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | FORZE Reloadavg 74¢ | $296 | $296 | +$0 | 8% 71-770 (841) |
LO lonmi2511 | FORZE Reloadavg 73¢ | $193.3 | $205.22 | +$11.92 | 60% 628-411 (1039) |
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 24.5¢ | $67.38 | $59.92 | -$7.46 | 23% 142-486 (628) |
| └ MOUZ NXT leg | MOUZ NXTavg 24.5¢ | $44.31 | $33.44 | -$10.87 | |
| └ FORZE Reload leg | FORZE Reloadavg 71¢ | $23.08 | $26.49 | +$3.41 | |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | FORZE Reloadavg 73¢ | $28.81 | $29.21 | +$0.39 | 49% 29-30 (59) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | FORZE Reloadavg 72.5¢ | $16.6 | $17.29 | +$0.69 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | FORZE Reloadavg 74.6¢ | $25.36 | $6.66 | -$0.09 | 48% 407-443 (850) |
CR crmannetjeCTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 26¢ | $4.79 | $4.79 | +$0 | — 1-16 (17) |
Invested
$18,684.62
Value
$18.7K
PnL
+$5.13
Record
56%
378-298 (676)
Invested
$16,552.4
Value
$17.1K
PnL
+$531.18
Record
51%
708-691 (1399)
Invested
$8,073.97
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$759.86
Record
53%
120-105 (225)
Invested
$1,340.4
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
Invested
$996.88
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$48.83
Record
12%
59-453 (512)
Invested
$539.72
Value
$539.72
PnL
-$0
Record
—
Invested
$317.35
Value
$316.83
PnL
-$0.52
Record
35%
27-51 (78)
Invested
$296.66
Value
$302.01
PnL
+$5.36
Record
54%
1606-1351 (2957)
Invested
$296
Value
$296
PnL
+$0
Record
8%
71-770 (841)
Invested
$193.3
Value
$205.22
PnL
+$11.92
Record
60%
628-411 (1039)
Invested
$67.38
Value
$59.92
PnL
-$7.46
Record
23%
142-486 (628)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.81
Value
$29.21
PnL
+$0.39
Record
49%
29-30 (59)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$17.29
PnL
+$0.69
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$6.66
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
407-443 (850)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.79
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-16 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Wiretransferxyz
FORZE Reload — $18.7K
robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18
FORZE Reload — $17.1K
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
CTRMOUZ NXT — $7.3K
sentrio
FORZE Reload — $1.3K
BillBenter2026
FORZE Reload — $1.0K
iWasEnough
FORZE Reload — $539.72
319113331313111
FORZE Reload — $316.83
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
FORZE Reload — $302.01
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
FORZE Reload — $296
lonmi2511
FORZE Reload — $205.22