Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold GenOne, while the market favors Brute (100%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Brute (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold GenOne (58%) · GenOne at 0.1¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

GenOne<1¢Brute>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

GenOne

Consensus Traders

GenOne 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$805.89

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGenOne at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GenOne

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

GenOne0%

Brute100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GenOne7 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares13,436

Combined PnL-$991.12

Brute5 traders

Total Value$855.15

Total Shares1,373

Combined PnL+$185.23

GenOne — 58%Brute — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	GenOneavg 48.6¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$315.39	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	GenOneavg 56.7¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$33.22	53% 1192-1046 (2238)
38 38791873984189	Bruteavg 65.6¢	$375.27	$474.48	+$99.22	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	GenOneavg 56.7¢	$690.08	$339.89	-$350.18	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
└ Brute leg	Bruteavg 42¢	$109.09	$232.25	+$123.17
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 56.7¢	$580.99	$107.64	-$473.35
poshposh	Bruteavg 51.4¢	$106.28	$187.41	+$81.13	57% 12701-9766 (22467)
NA NagastaBagambiCTR	GenOneavg 34¢	$154.58	$127.23	-$27.34	49% 17-18 (35)
CI cigarettes	Bruteavg 78¢	$142.21	$112.91	-$29.3	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
alpheclabs2<$100	Bruteavg 8.4¢	$41.67	$76.85	+$35.18	47% 1225-1400 (2625)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	GenOneavg 18.1¢	$43.49	$39.38	-$4.11	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Bruteavg 90¢	$4.5	$3.5	-$1	34% 19149-36800 (55949)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	GenOneavg 34.1¢	$1.89	$1.55	-$0.34	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
KA KaczkaCTR	GenOneavg 59.9¢	$605.23	$0.5	-$604.73	51% 469-453 (922)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	GenOneavg 40¢	$6	$0.01	-$5.99	50% 25814-25509 (51323)

RN1CTR

GenOne

Invested

$5,290.63

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$315.39

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

GenOne

Invested

$4,618.21

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$33.22

Record

53%

1192-1046 (2238)

38791873984189

Brute

Invested

$375.27

Value

$474.48

PnL

+$99.22

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

GenOne

Invested

$690.08

Value

$339.89

PnL

-$350.18

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

Both legs:

Brute$109.0942¢+$123.17

GenOne$580.9956.7¢-$473.35

poshposh

Brute

Invested

$106.28

Value

$187.41

PnL

+$81.13

Record

57%

12701-9766 (22467)

NagastaBagambiCTR

GenOne

Invested

$154.58

Value

$127.23

PnL

-$27.34

Record

49%

17-18 (35)

cigarettes

Brute

Invested

$142.21

Value

$112.91

PnL

-$29.3

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

alpheclabs2<$100

Brute

Invested

$41.67

Value

$76.85

PnL

+$35.18

Record

47%

1225-1400 (2625)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$43.49

Value

$39.38

PnL

-$4.11

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Brute

Invested

$4.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$1

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.34

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

KaczkaCTR

GenOne

Invested

$605.23

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$604.73

Record

51%

469-453 (922)

sentrioCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.99

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Research grade

AvoidGenOne at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

GenOne

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GenOne wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.