Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (50%) · Spirit at 76¢ · $105K held · ends Nov 11

Spirit76¢FUT Esports24¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 50%

Total Value

$105.5K

Combined PnL

$506.51

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 75.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit76%

FUT Esports25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit7 traders

Total Value$85.9K

Total Shares113,749

Combined PnL+$2.4K

FUT Esports7 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares79,326

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Spirit — 50%FUT Esports — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Spiritavg 75.9¢	$44.5K	$44.3K	-$238.21	54% 333-281 (614)
JA JabJabich	Spiritavg 69.2¢	$21.4K	$23.3K	+$1.9K	62% 253-157 (410)
relativesignificance	Spiritavg 72¢	$14.7K	$15.4K	+$715.25	57% 160-122 (282)
KateBollingerCTR	FUT Esportsavg 25¢	$7.5K	$7.3K	-$150	68% 1894-905 (2799)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	FUT Esportsavg 31¢	$6.2K	$5.0K	$-1.1K	51% 1380-1348 (2728)
VI vibing123CTR	FUT Esportsavg 29.1¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$355.94	51% 1783-1683 (3466)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	FUT Esportsavg 25¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$59.81	50% 24122-24229 (48351)
DumplingBMF	Spiritavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10	69% 1971-891 (2862)
Stickman22CTR	FUT Esportsavg 31¢	$1.2K	$999.99	-$220	52% 1888-1767 (3655)
GH ghorrock	Spiritavg 73.9¢	$983.32	$989.11	+$5.79	57% 25501-19040 (44541)
LooksMaxxingxCTR	FUT Esportsavg 25¢	$500	$500	+$0	51% 926-877 (1803)
OD Oddstorm	Spiritavg 73.5¢	$329.05	$335.87	+$5.83	48% 8399-8933 (17332)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	FUT Esportsavg 31.2¢	$310.55	$249.2	-$54.82	51% 12924-12461 (25385)
RA Rayaya<$100	Spiritavg 68¢	$26.64	$29.38	+$2.55	61% 1253-807 (2060)

lllllllIlll

Spirit

Invested

$44,492.27

Value

$44.3K

PnL

-$238.21

Record

54%

333-281 (614)

JabJabich

Spirit

Invested

$21,381.79

Value

$23.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

62%

253-157 (410)

relativesignificance

Spirit

Invested

$14,710.17

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$715.25

Record

57%

160-122 (282)

KateBollingerCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$7,500

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$150

Record

68%

1894-905 (2799)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$6,200

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

1380-1348 (2728)

vibing123CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,259.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$355.94

Record

51%

1783-1683 (3466)

omnibus-076daaCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,788.51

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$59.81

Record

50%

24122-24229 (48351)

DumplingBMF

Spirit

Invested

$1,479.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

69%

1971-891 (2862)

Stickman22CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,239.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

-$220

Record

52%

1888-1767 (3655)

ghorrock

Spirit

Invested

$983.32

Value

$989.11

PnL

+$5.79

Record

57%

25501-19040 (44541)

LooksMaxxingxCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

926-877 (1803)

Oddstorm

Spirit

Invested

$329.05

Value

$335.87

PnL

+$5.83

Record

48%

8399-8933 (17332)

iWasEnoughCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$310.55

Value

$249.2

PnL

-$54.82

Record

51%

12924-12461 (25385)

Rayaya<$100

Spirit

Invested

$26.64

Value

$29.38

PnL

+$2.55

Record

61%

1253-807 (2060)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.