Dota 2: Froglings vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (42%) · Froglings at 62¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings62¢PlayTime38¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 62¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings62%

PlayTime38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings5 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares24,267

Combined PnL+$1.4K

PlayTime7 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares23,169

Combined PnL+$63.83

Froglings — 42%PlayTime — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 61.9¢	$11.9K	$13.4K	+$1.5K	59% 1036-727 (1763)
SkritopoolniyCTR	PlayTimeavg 39¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$319.01	46% 680-798 (1478)
Medo3DCTR	PlayTimeavg 39¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$324.45	41% 198-289 (487)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	PlayTimeavg 40.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$41.88	48% 895-955 (1850)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Froglingsavg 56.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$18.39	45% 86-105 (191)
GX gxxyy	Froglingsavg 76.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$141.47	70% 534-233 (767)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	PlayTimeavg 42.2¢	$205.9	$251.22	+$45.32	55% 321-267 (588)
PA pauleta23	Froglingsavg 59¢	$210	$227.75	+$17.75	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
alpheclabs2CTR	PlayTimeavg 34.5¢	$266.03	$223.39	-$42.64	47% 1777-1989 (3766)
BE BeastsCTR	PlayTimeavg 38.9¢	$166.61	$220.54	+$53.93	33% 12-24 (36)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Froglingsavg 59.7¢	$203.29	$214.53	+$11.25	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 59.7¢	$139.14	$144.56	+$5.42
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 34.8¢	$64.14	$69.97	+$5.83
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	PlayTimeavg 34.8¢	$792.31	$141.07	+$54.54	61% 660-425 (1085)
LR lryyy<$100	Froglingsavg 64¢	$36.06	$42.05	+$5.99	48% 40309-43267 (83576)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$11,929.5

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

59%

1036-727 (1763)

SkritopoolniyCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$3,142.98

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$319.01

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

Medo3DCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$3,163.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$324.45

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

RandomVibecoderCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,043.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$41.88

Record

48%

895-955 (1850)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Froglings

Invested

$1,470.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$18.39

Record

45%

86-105 (191)

gxxyy

Froglings

Invested

$1,531.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$141.47

Record

70%

534-233 (767)

r2d2v2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$205.9

Value

$251.22

PnL

+$45.32

Record

55%

321-267 (588)

pauleta23

Froglings

Invested

$210

Value

$227.75

PnL

+$17.75

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

alpheclabs2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$266.03

Value

$223.39

PnL

-$42.64

Record

47%

1777-1989 (3766)

BeastsCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$166.61

Value

$220.54

PnL

+$53.93

Record

33%

12-24 (36)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$203.29

Value

$214.53

PnL

+$11.25

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

Both legs:

Froglings$139.1459.7¢+$5.42

PlayTime$64.1434.8¢+$5.83

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$792.31

Value

$141.07

PnL

+$54.54

Record

61%

660-425 (1085)

lryyy<$100

Froglings

Invested

$36.06

Value

$42.05

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

40309-43267 (83576)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.