Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (36%) · Nemiga Gaming at 100¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 11

Zero Tenacity<1¢Nemiga Gaming>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 36%

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zero Tenacity0%

Nemiga Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming5 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares22,904

Combined PnL+$212.66

Zero Tenacity9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares23,030

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Nemiga Gaming — 36%Zero Tenacity — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$19.7K	$19.7K	+$9.84	97% 63-2 (65)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 57.1¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	+$73.39	25% 176-515 (691)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nemiga Gamingavg 72.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$172.55	56% 3814-2983 (6797)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Nemiga Gamingavg 59.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$41.2	9% 19-201 (220)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 18.3¢	$3.4K	$793	-$677.48	48% 489-531 (1020)
GA Gaditima	Nemiga Gamingavg 92¢	$366.3	$354.42	-$11.88	48% 78-83 (161)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 41.8¢	$31.86	$15.7	-$16.16	32% 183-396 (579)
PL plustiCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 38¢	$4.6K	$12	$-4.5K	24% 11-34 (45)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 48¢	$154.63	$6.44	-$148.19	— 10-6 (16)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 76.2¢	$3.02	$3.96	+$0.94	50% 1432-1432 (2864)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 45.8¢	$28.63	$1.25	-$27.38	46% 33-39 (72)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 55¢	$27.5	$1	-$26.5	53% 5455-4894 (10349)
MA madar78CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 6¢	$27.12	$0.17	-$4.71	33% 17-34 (51)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 25.3¢	$58.1	$0.12	-$57.99	64% 166-94 (260)

pvc975

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$19,666.24

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$9.84

Record

97%

63-2 (65)

ameisgoat11CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2,660.65

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$73.39

Record

25%

176-515 (691)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,364.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$172.55

Record

56%

3814-2983 (6797)

TommyLeePeeca

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,280.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$41.2

Record

19-201 (220)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,367.08

Value

$793

PnL

-$677.48

Record

48%

489-531 (1020)

Gaditima

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$366.3

Value

$354.42

PnL

-$11.88

Record

48%

78-83 (161)

sentrioCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$31.86

Value

$15.7

PnL

-$16.16

Record

32%

183-396 (579)

plustiCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$4,559.99

Value

$12

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

24%

11-34 (45)

JuiceFarmCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$154.63

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$148.19

Record

—

10-6 (16)

Flaznorp<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.94

Record

50%

1432-1432 (2864)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$28.63

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$27.38

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$27.5

Value

PnL

-$26.5

Record

53%

5455-4894 (10349)

madar78CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$27.12

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$4.71

Record

33%

17-34 (51)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$58.1

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$57.99

Record

64%

166-94 (260)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.