Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CD Tecnico Universitario, while the market favors Manta FC (95%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: CD Tecnico Universitario (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold CD Tecnico Universitario (70%) · CD Tecnico Universitario at 5.5¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

CD Tecnico Universitario6¢Manta FC94¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CD Tecnico Universitario

Consensus Traders

CD Tecnico Universitario 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$359.61

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 5.5¢

-88% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCD Tecnico Universitario at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Tecnico Universitario

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Manta FC 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

CD Tecnico Universitario6%

Manta FC95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Tecnico Universitario7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,658

Combined PnL+$487.66

Manta FC3 traders

Total Value$762.1

Total Shares1,569

Combined PnL-$128.05

CD Tecnico Universitario — 70%Manta FC — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on CD Tecnico Universitario. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCD Tecnico Universitario 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedCD Tecnico Universitario 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000CD Tecnico Universitario 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 47.3¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$486.63	52% 236-220 (456)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 45.7¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$900.57	50% 32-32 (64)
└ Manta FC leg	Manta FCavg 58.1¢	$520.58	$815.75	+$295.17
└ CD Tecnico Universitario leg	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 45.7¢	$1.5K	$293.5	$-1.2K
rayvanmechelen	Manta FCavg 56.8¢	$1.5K	$738.3	-$126.63	1% 1-140 (141)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 41.6¢	$307.6	$333.76	+$26.17	30% 60-139 (199)
VeryLucky888CTR	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 45.9¢	$304.71	$286.71	-$18	52% 59-54 (113)
BI biying99999CTR	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 47.8¢	$148.65	$147.73	+$3.74	6% 2-34 (36)
SE sentrio<$100	Manta FCavg 58¢	$17.29	$16.3	-$0.99	22% 46-161 (207)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 66¢	$14.52	$10.45	-$3.63	60% 37-25 (62)
FaroeseNationalist<$100	Manta FCavg 51¢	$7.29	$7.5	-$0.43	— 2-1 (3)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 49¢	$10	$2.35	-$7.65	20% 56-219 (275)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	CD Tecnico Universitarioavg 21¢	$1.31	$1.72	+$0.41	38% 88-145 (233)

FlaznorpCTR

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$1,472.48

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$486.63

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$2,009.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$900.57

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

Both legs:

Manta FC$520.5858.1¢+$295.17

CD Tecnico Universitario$1,489.2445.7¢$-1.2K

rayvanmechelen

Manta FC

Invested

$1,522.26

Value

$738.3

PnL

-$126.63

Record

1-140 (141)

omnibus-076daaCTR

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$307.6

Value

$333.76

PnL

+$26.17

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

VeryLucky888CTR

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$304.71

Value

$286.71

PnL

-$18

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

biying99999CTR

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$148.65

Value

$147.73

PnL

+$3.74

Record

2-34 (36)

sentrio<$100

Manta FC

Invested

$17.29

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$0.99

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

lryyyCTR<$100

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$14.52

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$3.63

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

FaroeseNationalist<$100

Manta FC

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.43

Record

—

2-1 (3)

pauleta23CTR<$100

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$10

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$7.65

Record

20%

56-219 (275)

cigarettesCTR<$100

CD Tecnico Universitario

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.41

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

Research grade

AvoidCD Tecnico Universitario at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

CD Tecnico Universitario

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Manta FC 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on CD Tecnico Universitario. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCD Tecnico Universitario 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedCD Tecnico Universitario 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000CD Tecnico Universitario 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Tecnico Universitario wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.