Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares13,718

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$530.63

Total Shares4,419

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 61.5¢	$5.3K	$8.6K	+$3.3K	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 75.5¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	72% 2540-972 (3512)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 34.8¢	$260.6	$279.02	+$18.42	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
RN1CTR	Overavg 33.7¢	$1.3K	$163.38	$-1.2K	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
HRTrading	Underavg 35.4¢	$74.81	$144.69	+$69.88	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 35.4¢	$45.73	$49.67	+$3.94	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 42.1¢	$76.15	$38.57	-$37.59	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 63.4¢	$27.25	$26.42	-$0.83	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$23.18	$25.35	+$2.16	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8	$10.05	+$2.05	59% 30677-21391 (52068)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Underavg 62¢	$1.63	$1.62	-$0.01	54% 4943-4171 (9114)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$5,281.97

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$3,617.8

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

72%

2540-972 (3512)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$260.6

Value

$279.02

PnL

+$18.42

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,343.59

Value

$163.38

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$74.81

Value

$144.69

PnL

+$69.88

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.73

Value

$49.67

PnL

+$3.94

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.15

Value

$38.57

PnL

-$37.59

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.25

Value

$26.42

PnL

-$0.83

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$23.18

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$2.16

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$10.05

PnL

+$2.05

Record

59%

30677-21391 (52068)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Under

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.