Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Liverpool FC (38%) · Liverpool FC at 85¢ · $60K held · ended Nov 1

Arsenal FC16¢Liverpool FC84¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liverpool FC

Consensus Traders

Liverpool FC 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$59.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 84.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Arsenal FC16%

Liverpool FC85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liverpool FC3 traders

Total Value$48.4K

Total Shares60,143

Combined PnL-$901.13

Arsenal FC5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares19,654

Combined PnL-$454.25

Liverpool FC — 38%Arsenal FC — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arsenal FC) and the top 1000 (6 on Liverpool FC) disagree here.

whaleArsenal FC 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrArsenal FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedArsenal FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liverpool FC 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1	Liverpool FCavg 82¢	$60.0K	$48.3K	-$899.98	51% 59-57 (116)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 75.6¢	$6.7K	$7.1K	-$71.66	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 75.6¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	-$234.34
└ Arsenal FC leg	Arsenal FCavg 18.7¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$162.69
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Arsenal FCavg 19.1¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$549.37	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
HRTradingCTR	Arsenal FCavg 18¢	$389.72	$487.14	+$97.42	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Arsenal FCavg 26.6¢	$431.66	$417.37	-$14.3	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Arsenal FC leg	Arsenal FCavg 26.6¢	$338.55	$330.42	-$8.14
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 79.2¢	$93.11	$86.95	-$6.16
LE LeLynxMalynx	Liverpool FCavg 82¢	$110	$88.55	-$1.65	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
RN1ARB<$100	Arsenal FCavg 27¢	$101.81	$78.45	-$23.36	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 81¢	$42.63	$44.47	+$1.84
└ Arsenal FC leg	Arsenal FCavg 27¢	$59.18	$33.97	-$25.21
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Liverpool FCavg 73¢	$25.21	$25.72	+$0.51	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 19.5¢	$21.17	$14.89	-$1.82	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 34¢	$6.8	$6.2	-$0.6	59% 30677-21391 (52068)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 18¢	$2.16	$2.28	+$0.12	53% 16119-14285 (30404)

Siddhartha1

Liverpool FC

Invested

$59,998.89

Value

$48.3K

PnL

-$899.98

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$6,670.65

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$71.66

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$4,277.1175.6¢-$234.34

Arsenal FC$2,393.5418.7¢+$162.69

UpTheBluesCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$3,550.83

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$549.37

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

HRTradingCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$389.72

Value

$487.14

PnL

+$97.42

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$431.66

Value

$417.37

PnL

-$14.3

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Arsenal FC$338.5526.6¢-$8.14

Liverpool FC$93.1179.2¢-$6.16

LeLynxMalynx

Liverpool FC

Invested

$110

Value

$88.55

PnL

-$1.65

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

RN1ARB<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$101.81

Value

$78.45

PnL

-$23.36

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$42.6381¢+$1.84

Arsenal FC$59.1827¢-$25.21

topdogbigboi<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$25.21

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$0.51

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$21.17

Value

$14.89

PnL

-$1.82

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

59%

30677-21391 (52068)

CannaeCTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Research grade

NeutralLiverpool FC at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liverpool FC

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Liverpool FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arsenal FC) and the top 1000 (6 on Liverpool FC) disagree here.

whaleArsenal FC 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrArsenal FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedArsenal FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liverpool FC 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liverpool FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.