Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 75¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$42.14

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,990

Combined PnL-$45.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.18

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$3.04

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VA Vale54holi	Noavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.21	30% 359-839 (1198)
PO pollo07	Noavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.21	30% 521-1194 (1715)
LI Likaseent	Noavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.21	30% 376-878 (1254)
AK akroll	Noavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.21	30% 531-1212 (1743)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 75.9¢	$813.26	$797.87	-$15.4	35% 608-1132 (1740)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$273.88	$279.42	+$5.54	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$157.62	$160.77	+$3.15
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$116.26	$118.65	+$2.39
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$199.82	$37.49	+$2.42	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$32.08	$32.7	+$0.62	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75¢	$30.86	$30.65	-$0.21	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75¢	$30.78	$30.57	-$0.21	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 75¢	$27.86	$27.67	-$0.19	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 75¢	$18.04	$17.69	-$0.35	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 73¢	$2.7	$2.72	+$0.02	51% 27272-25818 (53090)

Vale54holi

Invested

$1,082.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.21

Record

30%

359-839 (1198)

pollo07

Invested

$1,082.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.21

Record

30%

521-1194 (1715)

Likaseent

Invested

$1,082.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.21

Record

30%

376-878 (1254)

akroll

Invested

$1,082.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.21

Record

30%

531-1212 (1743)

zerone777

Invested

$813.26

Value

$797.87

PnL

-$15.4

Record

35%

608-1132 (1740)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$273.88

Value

$279.42

PnL

+$5.54

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Both legs:

Invested

$199.82

Value

$37.49

PnL

+$2.42

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.08

Value

$32.7

PnL

+$0.62

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$30.86

Value

$30.65

PnL

-$0.21

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$30.78

Value

$30.57

PnL

-$0.21

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$27.86

Value

$27.67

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.04

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$0.35

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.