CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$20.86

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 78.5¢

+71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,256

Combined PnL+$47.28

Under8 traders

Total Value$74.75

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$26.42

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$735.62	$731.8	-$3.82	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$461.68	$507.84	+$46.17
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.8¢	$273.95	$223.96	-$49.99
AL alvahunter	Overavg 45¢	$750	$708.81	-$41.19	36% 21-37 (58)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 42.5¢	$206.12	$344.75	+$82.99	58% 48519-34669 (83188)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 43.2¢	$174.64	$201.27	+$26.63	54% 58149-50375 (108524)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.2¢	$129.52	$151.4	+$21.87
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.8¢	$45.11	$49.87	+$4.76
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$86.17	$83.25	-$2.92	47% 10056-11172 (21228)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 56.5¢	$39.33	$47.74	+$8.41	61% 13847-8753 (22600)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 31.5¢	$59.28	$40.5	-$18.77	51% 17616-16619 (34235)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$12.22	$12.78	+$0.56	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$9.07	$10.53	+$1.46	58% 11437-8289 (19726)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.88	+$0.08	51% 1000-963 (1963)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$7.83	$2.66	-$5.17	45% 12923-15690 (28613)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$6.9	$2.02	-$4.88	58% 43613-31723 (75336)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$1.93	$1.95	+$0.02	49% 13479-14176 (27655)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.14	$1.43	+$0.29	53% 6373-5762 (12135)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$735.62

Value

$731.8

PnL

-$3.82

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Both legs:

Under$461.6845¢+$46.17

Over$273.9561.8¢-$49.99

alvahunter

Over

Invested

$750

Value

$708.81

PnL

-$41.19

Record

36%

21-37 (58)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$206.12

Value

$344.75

PnL

+$82.99

Record

58%

48519-34669 (83188)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$174.64

Value

$201.27

PnL

+$26.63

Record

54%

58149-50375 (108524)

Both legs:

Over$129.5243.2¢+$21.87

Under$45.1144.8¢+$4.76

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$86.17

Value

$83.25

PnL

-$2.92

Record

47%

10056-11172 (21228)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$39.33

Value

$47.74

PnL

+$8.41

Record

61%

13847-8753 (22600)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.28

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$18.77

Record

51%

17616-16619 (34235)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.22

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.07

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$1.46

Record

58%

11437-8289 (19726)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

1000-963 (1963)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.83

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$5.17

Record

45%

12923-15690 (28613)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$4.88

Record

58%

43613-31723 (75336)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

13479-14176 (27655)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

6373-5762 (12135)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.