Le Mans FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$332.4

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 95.5¢

+30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,760

Combined PnL+$452.71

Over6 traders

Total Value$504.77

Total Shares2,161

Combined PnL-$120.31

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$349.33	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Overavg 29¢	$463.99	$375.99	-$88	52% 240-226 (466)
0xheavy888	Underavg 72¢	$330.51	$346.57	+$16.07	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 67¢	$193.97	$228.18	+$34.21	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
AR ARocky33	Underavg 76.2¢	$105.87	$132.64	+$26.77	76% 4861-1510 (6371)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 28¢	$400	$98	-$14	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 68¢	$68.16	$90.21	+$22.05	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 73.5¢	$36.75	$38.75	+$2	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 72¢	$25.73	$27.77	+$2.04	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$16.49	$11.27	-$5.22	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 32.5¢	$21.31	$10.49	-$10.82	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 62¢	$7.35	$7.6	+$0.25	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$7.42	$5.7	-$1.72	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$13.86	$3.33	-$0.55	48% 2079-2257 (4336)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,277.55

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$349.33

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Over

Invested

$463.99

Value

$375.99

PnL

-$88

Record

52%

240-226 (466)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$330.51

Value

$346.57

PnL

+$16.07

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$193.97

Value

$228.18

PnL

+$34.21

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

ARocky33

Under

Invested

$105.87

Value

$132.64

PnL

+$26.77

Record

76%

4861-1510 (6371)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$98

PnL

-$14

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$68.16

Value

$90.21

PnL

+$22.05

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$36.75

Value

$38.75

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$25.73

Value

$27.77

PnL

+$2.04

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.49

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$5.22

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.31

Value

$10.49

PnL

-$10.82

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.42

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$1.72

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.86

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.