Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 62¢ · $57K held · ended Nov 8

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 61.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$29.4K

Total Shares54,184

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Over9 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares15,392

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 50.3¢	$24.0K	$25.5K	+$1.5K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$20.8K	$19.0K	$-2.8K	48% 405-446 (851)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$16.5K	$13.0K	$-3.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$4.3K	$6.1K	+$738.92
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 44.3¢	$2.7K	$3.7K	+$1.0K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 49.4¢	$3.6K	$3.3K	-$307.58	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 52.4¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$580.03	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$843.97	$861.61	+$29.64	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$619.97	$679.61	+$59.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$224	$182	-$30
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 53.9¢	$782.42	$632.02	-$150.4	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 50.8¢	$466	$426.62	-$39.38	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51¢	$419.39	$390.61	-$28.78	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 56¢	$336	$363	+$27	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
SE sentrio	Underavg 43.2¢	$148.26	$149.28	+$1.03	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51¢	$161.14	$121.57	-$39.56	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 49¢	$122.5	$96.25	-$26.25	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$72.8	$41.11	-$0.68	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$35.88	$38.15	+$2.28	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
RN1<$100	Underavg 59¢	$21.75	$22.67	+$0.93	53% 63014-55227 (118241)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$24,012.65

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Over

Invested

$20,834.98

Value

$19.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Both legs:

Over$16,499.9949¢$-3.5K

Under$4,33544¢+$738.92

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$2,668.29

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$3,601.66

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$307.58

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,730.05

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$580.03

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$843.97

Value

$861.61

PnL

+$29.64

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Both legs:

Under$619.9749.7¢+$59.64

Over$22456¢-$30

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$782.42

Value

$632.02

PnL

-$150.4

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$466

Value

$426.62

PnL

-$39.38

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$419.39

Value

$390.61

PnL

-$28.78

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$336

Value

$363

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$148.26

Value

$149.28

PnL

+$1.03

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$161.14

Value

$121.57

PnL

-$39.56

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$122.5

Value

$96.25

PnL

-$26.25

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.8

Value

$41.11

PnL

-$0.68

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$35.88

Value

$38.15

PnL

+$2.28

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$21.75

Value

$22.67

PnL

+$0.93

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.