Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

4.2¢ → 2.1¢

-51% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,418

Combined PnL+$43.91

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares96,952

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+59 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

499h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 96.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$5.55	97% 2582-68 (2650)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 94.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$38.36	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.1K	$774.02	-$350.5	58% 843-614 (1457)
betwickCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$684.27	$574.39	-$109.88	55% 352-292 (644)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$796.27	$433.62	-$362.65	40% 704-1061 (1765)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$341.14	$162.18	-$178.96	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$391.13	$113	-$281.35	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PI piepedCTR	Yes	$200	$72.02	-$218.92	42% 71-100 (171)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$228.33	$49.59	-$178.74	39% 196-304 (500)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$76.01	$29.85	-$46.16	38% 20-32 (52)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4.39	$1.26	-$2.77	55% 78-65 (143)

BunCaCham

Invested

$2,149.78

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$5.55

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,147.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$38.36

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,124.51

Value

$774.02

PnL

-$350.5

Record

58%

843-614 (1457)

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$684.27

Value

$574.39

PnL

-$109.88

Record

55%

352-292 (644)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$796.27

Value

$433.62

PnL

-$362.65

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$341.14

Value

$162.18

PnL

-$178.96

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$391.13

Value

$113

PnL

-$281.35

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$72.02

PnL

-$218.92

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$228.33

Value

$49.59

PnL

-$178.74

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.01

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$46.16

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

SquirrelTheMerchantCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.39

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$2.77

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+59 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

499h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.2%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3056.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

3156.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.