Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Celtics (86%). 11 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. Bucks

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (61%) · Bucks at 14¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

Celtics86¢Bucks14¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$261.81

Smart Money Entry

13.9¢ → 14.5¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics86%

Bucks14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks11 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares44,025

Combined PnL+$249.55

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,455

Combined PnL+$12.26

Bucks — 61%Celtics — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bucksavg 13.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$87.24	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
NM NM-P	Celticsavg 85.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Celticsavg 85.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.95	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 13.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$60.06	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 14¢	$982	$1.0K	+$35.07	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 85.5¢	$1.8K	$975.33	+$18.12	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 85.5¢	$771.77	$772.18	+$5.23
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 13.7¢	$191.96	$203.14	+$12.89
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Bucksavg 13.6¢	$818.52	$873.21	+$54.69	49% 115-122 (237)
Medo3DCTR	Bucksavg 14¢	$513.78	$532.13	+$18.35	40% 182-275 (457)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 13¢	$266.76	$297.54	+$30.78	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
WE westing.v1	Celticsavg 86¢	$284.48	$282.83	-$1.65	50% 61-62 (123)
DA darkumbreon88	Celticsavg 86¢	$220.56	$219.27	-$1.28	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
OD OddstormCTR	Bucksavg 18.9¢	$136.12	$106.97	-$29.16	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 13¢	$82.43	$91.95	+$9.51	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Bucksavg 14¢	$56	$58	+$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Bucksavg 20¢	$61.53	$42.49	-$19.05	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
PA Pan9X	Celticsavg 86¢	$118	$23.02	-$2.7	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Celticsavg 86¢	$8.6	$8.55	-$0.05	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Celticsavg 87¢	$2.02	$2	-$0.02	59% 44-30 (74)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Bucksavg 14¢	$1.4	$1.45	+$0.05	49% 3720-3945 (7665)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,989.95

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$87.24

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

NM-P

Celtics

Invested

$1,489.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Celtics

Invested

$1,319.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.95

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,245

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$60.06

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$982

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.07

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,795.94

Value

$975.33

PnL

+$18.12

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Celtics$771.7785.5¢+$5.23

Bucks$191.9613.7¢+$12.89

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Bucks

Invested

$818.52

Value

$873.21

PnL

+$54.69

Record

49%

115-122 (237)

Medo3DCTR

Bucks

Invested

$513.78

Value

$532.13

PnL

+$18.35

Record

40%

182-275 (457)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$266.76

Value

$297.54

PnL

+$30.78

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

westing.v1

Celtics

Invested

$284.48

Value

$282.83

PnL

-$1.65

Record

50%

61-62 (123)

darkumbreon88

Celtics

Invested

$220.56

Value

$219.27

PnL

-$1.28

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

OddstormCTR

Bucks

Invested

$136.12

Value

$106.97

PnL

-$29.16

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$82.43

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$9.51

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$56

Value

$58

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$61.53

Value

$42.49

PnL

-$19.05

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

Pan9X

Celtics

Invested

$118

Value

$23.02

PnL

-$2.7

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ameisgoat11<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Aceplus3<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

59%

44-30 (74)

efntrickCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

3720-3945 (7665)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.