Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Celtics (56%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-3.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (59%) · 76ers at 44¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics56¢76ers44¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 59%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$79.6

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 44¢

-17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 56%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics56%

76ers44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers10 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,018

Combined PnL-$269.73

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,293

Combined PnL+$190.13

76ers — 59%Celtics — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 56¢	$997.92	$784.08	-$213.84	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Celticsavg 53.2¢	$579.18	$609.98	+$30.81	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
BR BreakTheBank	Celticsavg 44¢	$545.54	$595.13	+$49.59	42% 574-809 (1383)
65 6512395314597884CTR	76ersavg 51.3¢	$557.44	$565.78	+$8.35	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
73 739633786	Celticsavg 44¢	$484	$528	+$44	3% 5-185 (190)
VeryLucky888CTR	76ersavg 55.6¢	$485.26	$454.18	-$31.08	51% 300-292 (592)
BI biying88888	Celticsavg 50.5¢	$266.3	$295.12	+$28.82	27% 63-170 (233)
RN1CTR	76ersavg 44.8¢	$276.48	$268.59	-$7.89	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	76ersavg 48.8¢	$161	$171.6	+$10.6	56% 488-383 (871)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 53.4¢	$166.19	$137.04	-$29.15	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
TA takeormake	Celticsavg 43.2¢	$81.69	$105.84	+$24.15	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	76ersavg 58¢	$84.24	$76.98	-$7.26	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
MA MadridTime<$100	Celticsavg 47¢	$61.3	$73.04	+$11.74	28% 279-704 (983)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$15	$15.6	+$0.6	49% 444-470 (914)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$8.5	$8.84	+$0.34	48% 949-1019 (1968)
LI LightParadox<$100	Celticsavg 42¢	$7.14	$8.16	+$1.02	28% 275-716 (991)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	76ersavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.3	-$0.4	26% 181-519 (700)

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$997.92

Value

$784.08

PnL

-$213.84

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Celtics

Invested

$579.18

Value

$609.98

PnL

+$30.81

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

BreakTheBank

Celtics

Invested

$545.54

Value

$595.13

PnL

+$49.59

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

6512395314597884CTR

76ers

Invested

$557.44

Value

$565.78

PnL

+$8.35

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

739633786

Celtics

Invested

$484

Value

$528

PnL

+$44

Record

5-185 (190)

VeryLucky888CTR

76ers

Invested

$485.26

Value

$454.18

PnL

-$31.08

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

biying88888

Celtics

Invested

$266.3

Value

$295.12

PnL

+$28.82

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

RN1CTR

76ers

Invested

$276.48

Value

$268.59

PnL

-$7.89

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

76ers

Invested

$161

Value

$171.6

PnL

+$10.6

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$166.19

Value

$137.04

PnL

-$29.15

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

takeormake

Celtics

Invested

$81.69

Value

$105.84

PnL

+$24.15

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$84.24

Value

$76.98

PnL

-$7.26

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

MadridTime<$100

Celtics

Invested

$61.3

Value

$73.04

PnL

+$11.74

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$15

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

38791873984189CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.84

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

LightParadox<$100

Celtics

Invested

$7.14

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$1.02

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 56%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.