Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 218.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 54¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 11

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$224.9

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 53.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares17,635

Combined PnL+$269.78

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,540

Combined PnL-$44.88

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.7¢	$6.5K	$6.7K	+$224.01	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$64.79	49% 95-99 (194)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$64.33	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$20	12% 3-22 (25)
HG hgawxCTR	Overavg 49¢	$925.14	$944.02	+$18.88	2% 1-43 (44)
SE sentrio	Underavg 50¢	$220	$220	+$0	30% 160-379 (539)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$35.17	$27.52	+$0.46	48% 220-236 (456)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$36.54	$24.36	+$0.98	51% 265-255 (520)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.3	+$0.1	56% 105-81 (186)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	23% 149-494 (643)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,503.28

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$224.01

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$1,321.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$64.79

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,260.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$64.33

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$20

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

hgawxCTR

Over

Invested

$925.14

Value

$944.02

PnL

+$18.88

Record

1-43 (44)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$220

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

160-379 (539)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.17

Value

$27.52

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$36.54

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$0.98

Record

51%

265-255 (520)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

149-494 (643)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.