Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (67%) · Celtics at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Celtics54¢Raptors46¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.88

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 9 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics54%

Raptors47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,601

Combined PnL-$15.98

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$209.25

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$0.9

Celtics — 67%Raptors — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 45.1¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$57.12	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 45.1¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$25.34
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 53.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$31.78
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Celticsavg 54¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	53% 1833-1635 (3468)
HI hi774c	Celticsavg 55¢	$801.79	$787.21	-$14.58	14% 76-472 (548)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 54.3¢	$813.77	$611.18	-$13.59	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54.3¢	$318.34	$316.44	-$3.04
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46.6¢	$305.3	$294.75	-$10.55
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Celticsavg 54¢	$1.1K	$511.39	-$7.73	52% 472-438 (910)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54¢	$278.94	$278.94	+$0
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46.5¢	$240.18	$232.45	-$7.73
SE sentrioARB<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$502.66	$507.98	+$5.32	38% 358-588 (946)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 45¢	$361.96	$365.98	+$4.02
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54¢	$140.7	$142.01	+$1.3
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Celticsavg 54¢	$432	$432	+$0	15% 146-841 (987)
FO forecastication4	Celticsavg 54¢	$196.56	$196.56	+$0	18% 48-217 (265)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 45¢	$163.8	$163.8	-$0	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Celticsavg 56¢	$42.67	$41.24	-$1.43	45% 267-323 (590)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 46¢	$26.26	$26.55	+$0.29	31% 394-877 (1271)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45.9¢	$77.83	$18.9	-$1.19	49% 678-717 (1395)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Celticsavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.73	+$0.02	33% 307-627 (934)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$5,981.77

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$57.12

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

Raptors$3,027.945.1¢+$25.34

Celtics$2,953.8753.9¢+$31.78

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Celtics

Invested

$1,027.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1833-1635 (3468)

hi774c

Celtics

Invested

$801.79

Value

$787.21

PnL

-$14.58

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$813.77

Value

$611.18

PnL

-$13.59

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

Both legs:

Celtics$318.3454.3¢-$3.04

Raptors$305.346.6¢-$10.55

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,050.18

Value

$511.39

PnL

-$7.73

Record

52%

472-438 (910)

Both legs:

Celtics$278.9454¢+$0

Raptors$240.1846.5¢-$7.73

sentrioARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$502.66

Value

$507.98

PnL

+$5.32

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

Both legs:

Raptors$361.9645¢+$4.02

Celtics$140.754¢+$1.3

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Celtics

Invested

$432

Value

$432

PnL

+$0

Record

15%

146-841 (987)

forecastication4

Celtics

Invested

$196.56

Value

$196.56

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$163.8

Value

$163.8

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

SnakeBall<$100

Celtics

Invested

$42.67

Value

$41.24

PnL

-$1.43

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

VenusianCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$26.26

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$0.29

Record

31%

394-877 (1271)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$77.83

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$1.19

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

ameisgoat11<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

307-627 (934)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 9 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.