Spread: Rockets (-5.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (57%) · Nuggets at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets46¢Nuggets54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$115.66

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 54.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets46%

Nuggets55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,871

Combined PnL+$110.85

Rockets6 traders

Total Value$489.55

Total Shares1,069

Combined PnL+$4.81

Nuggets — 57%Rockets — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nuggets 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$610.17	$710.84	+$100.67	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Nuggetsavg 54.8¢	$675.54	$672.16	-$3.38	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$256.29	$259.09	+$2.79	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 51.4¢	$348.44	$192.84	-$45.34	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 51.4¢	$153.64	$134.54	-$34.74
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$68.9	$58.3	-$10.6
VE VenusianCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$177.09	$179.06	+$1.97	—
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 38¢	$85.01	$86.07	+$1.06	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 38¢	$40.45	$52.69	+$1.06
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 61¢	$40.33	$33.39	+$0
GC GC-P<$100	Nuggetsavg 54¢	$51.96	$52.44	+$0.48	—
NM NM-P<$100	Nuggetsavg 54¢	$51.93	$52.41	+$0.48	—
E4 e46m3<$100	Nuggetsavg 43¢	$32.26	$41.64	+$7.88	—
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Nuggetsavg 50.2¢	$28.65	$31.07	+$2.43	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 51.8¢	$29.24	$25.12	-$4.12	—
SE sentrio<$100	Nuggetsavg 38¢	$19.72	$20.11	+$0.39	—
RN1CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 44¢	$13.02	$13.17	+$0.15	—
balthazar<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$8.8	$11.1	+$1.9	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 45.6¢	$33.27	$8.67	+$5.18	—
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 56¢	$5.6	$4.45	-$1.15	—

nigiri99

Nuggets

Invested

$610.17

Value

$710.84

PnL

+$100.67

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Nuggets

Invested

$675.54

Value

$672.16

PnL

-$3.38

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$256.29

Value

$259.09

PnL

+$2.79

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$348.44

Value

$192.84

PnL

-$45.34

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$153.6451.4¢-$34.74

Nuggets$68.965¢-$10.6

VenusianCTR

Rockets

Invested

$177.09

Value

$179.06

PnL

+$1.97

Record

—

SnakeBallARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$85.01

Value

$86.07

PnL

+$1.06

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$40.4538¢+$1.06

Rockets$40.3361¢+$0

GC-P<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$51.96

Value

$52.44

PnL

+$0.48

Record

—

NM-P<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$51.93

Value

$52.41

PnL

+$0.48

Record

—

e46m3<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$32.26

Value

$41.64

PnL

+$7.88

Record

—

SunlineTicker<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$28.65

Value

$31.07

PnL

+$2.43

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$29.24

Value

$25.12

PnL

-$4.12

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$19.72

Value

$20.11

PnL

+$0.39

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$13.02

Value

$13.17

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$8.8

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$1.9

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$33.27

Value

$8.67

PnL

+$5.18

Record

—

RLWGCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.6

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$1.15

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nuggets 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.