Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 51¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 12

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

-$28.1

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 51¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares12,425

Combined PnL+$76.12

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,638

Combined PnL-$104.22

Over — 46%Under — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 51¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$63.22	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 49¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$56.97	30% 16-37 (53)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$546.5	$541.37	-$5.13	52% 497-452 (949)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$260.81	$291.43	+$30.62	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 52.3¢	$314	$291	-$23	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 56¢	$189.79	$183.01	-$6.78	70% 1671-717 (2388)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 44¢	$164.16	$152.25	+$12.14	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$85.32	$99.87	+$17
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$57.24	$52.38	-$4.86
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 48¢	$107.08	$86.63	-$20.45	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
RN1<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$79.43	$72	-$7.43	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$73.92	$69.14	-$4.78	49% 692-733 (1425)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$47.33	$49.96	+$2.63	38% 222-363 (585)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.43	-$0.13	55% 680-552 (1232)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.05	31% 412-918 (1330)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.05	34% 327-634 (961)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,877.16

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$63.22

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$5,583.04

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$56.97

Record

30%

16-37 (53)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$546.5

Value

$541.37

PnL

-$5.13

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$260.81

Value

$291.43

PnL

+$30.62

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$314

Value

$291

PnL

-$23

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$189.79

Value

$183.01

PnL

-$6.78

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$164.16

Value

$152.25

PnL

+$12.14

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Invested

$107.08

Value

$86.63

PnL

-$20.45

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$79.43

Value

$72

PnL

-$7.43

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$73.92

Value

$69.14

PnL

-$4.78

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.33

Value

$49.96

PnL

+$2.63

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.