Spread: Raptors (-3.5)

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (23%) · Grizzlies at 54¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 10

Raptors47¢Grizzlies53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 23%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$382.66

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors47%

Grizzlies54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares19,314

Combined PnL+$167.84

Raptors10 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares16,053

Combined PnL+$214.82

Grizzlies — 23%Raptors — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Grizzliesavg 52.8¢	$8.3K	$8.5K	+$115.37	45% 120-149 (269)
IA ianf2026CTR	Raptorsavg 47.2¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$87.56	50% 134-136 (270)
nehcnehc	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$52.5	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 48¢	$414.5	$413.99	-$0.51	54% 20343-17178 (37521)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 48¢	$312.26	$302.36	-$9.9
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$102.24	$111.63	+$9.39
nigiri99CTR	Raptorsavg 48.8¢	$319.38	$304.11	-$15.27	45% 14911-18249 (33160)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raptorsavg 47¢	$235	$232.5	-$2.5	58% 53914-38392 (92306)
GC GC-PCTR	Raptors	$162.75	$162.75	+$162.75	57% 22682-16912 (39594)
NM NM-PCTR	Raptorsavg 47¢	$164.5	$162.75	-$1.75	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 0¢	$0	$161.82	+$161.82	52% 49773-46707 (96480)
RN1CTR	Raptorsavg 47¢	$117.5	$116.25	-$1.25	53% 72174-63643 (135817)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Raptorsavg 49¢	$102.89	$99.15	-$1.02	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 47¢	$40.39	$39.96	-$0.43	50% 49353-48879 (98232)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.58	-$0.03	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.03	46% 2861-3344 (6205)

RJW1

Grizzlies

Invested

$8,342.73

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$115.37

Record

45%

120-149 (269)

ianf2026CTR

Raptors

Invested

$6,277.63

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$87.56

Record

50%

134-136 (270)

nehcnehc

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,819.95

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$414.5

Value

$413.99

PnL

-$0.51

Record

54%

20343-17178 (37521)

Both legs:

Raptors$312.2648¢-$9.9

Grizzlies$102.2449¢+$9.39

nigiri99CTR

Raptors

Invested

$319.38

Value

$304.11

PnL

-$15.27

Record

45%

14911-18249 (33160)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raptors

Invested

$235

Value

$232.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

53914-38392 (92306)

GC-PCTR

Raptors

Invested

$162.75

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$162.75

Record

57%

22682-16912 (39594)

NM-PCTR

Raptors

Invested

$164.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

Value

$161.82

PnL

+$161.82

Record

52%

49773-46707 (96480)

RN1CTR

Raptors

Invested

$117.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

72174-63643 (135817)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Raptors

Invested

$102.89

Value

$99.15

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$40.39

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$0.43

Record

50%

49353-48879 (98232)

ameisgoat11<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

LimousinCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.