Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 47¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 10

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.4K

Combined PnL

-$52.3

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares20,382

Combined PnL-$82

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,298

Combined PnL+$29.7

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (15 on Over) disagree here.

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	+$18.14	—
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$90.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$72.27
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 47¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	-$86.63	—
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 52.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$33.94	—
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.5	—
nigiri99	Underavg 53.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$2.47	—
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$277.09	$279.71	+$2.61	—
NM NM-P	Underavg 52.9¢	$197.74	$199.84	+$2.1	—
GC GC-P	Underavg 53¢	$185.5	$187.25	+$1.75	—
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$382.5	$135	-$12.5	—
PU purplegatto	Underavg 54¢	$108.54	$107.54	-$1.01	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$67.06	$67.79	+$0.73	—
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$29.76	$28.83	-$0.93	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$22.2	$21.81	-$0.39	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$37	$17.21	-$1.3	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.47	$9.17	-$0.3	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$7.65	$6.98	-$0.67	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.88	$3.24	+$0.33	—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,893.19

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$18.14

Record

—

Both legs:

Under$7,897.7452.9¢+$90.41

Over$2,994.1547.6¢-$72.27

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$8,145.17

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$86.63

Record

—

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$2,999.79

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$33.94

Record

—

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,262.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

—

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,026.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.47

Record

—

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$277.09

Value

$279.71

PnL

+$2.61

Record

—

NM-P

Under

Invested

$197.74

Value

$199.84

PnL

+$2.1

Record

—

GC-P

Under

Invested

$185.5

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$382.5

Value

$135

PnL

-$12.5

Record

—

purplegatto

Under

Invested

$108.54

Value

$107.54

PnL

-$1.01

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.06

Value

$67.79

PnL

+$0.73

Record

—

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.76

Value

$28.83

PnL

-$0.93

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.2

Value

$21.81

PnL

-$0.39

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37

Value

$17.21

PnL

-$1.3

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.47

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.67

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (15 on Over) disagree here.

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.