Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Heat (52%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-12.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (47%) · Jazz at 49¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Heat52¢Jazz48¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$137.72

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 48.5¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat52%

Jazz49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,018

Combined PnL+$120.78

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,406

Combined PnL-$258.51

Heat — 53%Jazz — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Heatavg 48.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$112.58	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$76.22
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46.4¢	$652.34	$688.69	+$36.36
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Heatavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.09	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 49.8¢	$587.28	$606.82	+$19.54
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.2¢	$559.15	$529.51	-$29.64
65 6512395314597884	Heatavg 47.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$59.58	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 54.8¢	$1.0K	$929.92	-$98.8	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
RN1CTR	Jazzavg 55.1¢	$1.6K	$854.5	-$72.24	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jazzavg 47.8¢	$699.63	$723.76	+$24.13	28% 299-766 (1065)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Jazzavg 68¢	$475.75	$346.31	-$129.43	9% 22-223 (245)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Jazzavg 46.1¢	$247.96	$266.35	+$18.39	29% 307-750 (1057)
SU SunlineTicker	Heatavg 34.9¢	$107.23	$143.82	+$36.59	70% 1655-702 (2357)
38 38791873984189	Heatavg 44.5¢	$125.65	$141.23	+$15.58	48% 969-1052 (2021)
SU suitcase6628	Heatavg 50¢	$100	$105	+$5	64% 180-100 (280)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$77.5	$76.73	-$0.78	29% 314-785 (1099)
TA takeormake<$100	Heatavg 48.5¢	$63.41	$57.56	+$2.82	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SE sentrio<$100	Heatavg 49¢	$51.38	$50.73	-$0.65	35% 266-490 (756)
PA Pan9X<$100	Heatavg 49.4¢	$38.52	$39.78	+$1.26	49% 450-474 (924)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$20.76	$20.97	+$0.21	54% 217-188 (405)
VE Venusian<$100	Heatavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.4	+$0.6	28% 305-773 (1078)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$2,112.23

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$112.58

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Heat$1,459.8948.5¢+$76.22

Jazz$652.3446.4¢+$36.36

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,146.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.09

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

Both legs:

Heat$587.2849.8¢+$19.54

Jazz$559.1551.2¢-$29.64

6512395314597884

Heat

Invested

$1,028.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$59.58

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,028.72

Value

$929.92

PnL

-$98.8

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

RN1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,560.61

Value

$854.5

PnL

-$72.24

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

LightParadoxCTR

Jazz

Invested

$699.63

Value

$723.76

PnL

+$24.13

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Jazz

Invested

$475.75

Value

$346.31

PnL

-$129.43

Record

22-223 (245)

MadridTimeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$247.96

Value

$266.35

PnL

+$18.39

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

SunlineTicker

Heat

Invested

$107.23

Value

$143.82

PnL

+$36.59

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

38791873984189

Heat

Invested

$125.65

Value

$141.23

PnL

+$15.58

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

suitcase6628

Heat

Invested

$100

Value

$105

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

LimousinCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$77.5

Value

$76.73

PnL

-$0.78

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

takeormake<$100

Heat

Invested

$63.41

Value

$57.56

PnL

+$2.82

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

sentrio<$100

Heat

Invested

$51.38

Value

$50.73

PnL

-$0.65

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

Pan9X<$100

Heat

Invested

$38.52

Value

$39.78

PnL

+$1.26

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$20.76

Value

$20.97

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Venusian<$100

Heat

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.