Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Heat (52%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-8.5)

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (29%) · Jazz at 49¢ · $89K held · ends Nov 11

Heat52¢Jazz48¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$89.4K

Combined PnL

-$123.28

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat52%

Jazz49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$50.6K

Total Shares104,294

Combined PnL-$424.18

Heat10 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares73,995

Combined PnL+$300.9

Jazz — 29%Heat — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1CTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$49.0K	$48.5K	-$500	47% 116-129 (245)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Heatavg 51¢	$20.7K	$20.9K	+$202.56	51% 3672-3496 (7168)
HO HomeRunHazard	Heatavg 51.2¢	$13.7K	$13.8K	+$83.11	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
nigiri99CTR	Jazzavg 47.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$74.21	52% 123-112 (235)
73 739633786	Heatavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.75	3% 5-185 (190)
PU purplegatto	Heatavg 51¢	$729.79	$736.94	+$7.15	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
VeryLucky888	Heatavg 52¢	$807.03	$615.06	-$9.12	48% 218-232 (450)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$357.71	$357.94	+$0.23	60% 3439-2335 (5774)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 51¢	$186.21	$188.19	+$1.98
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49¢	$171.5	$169.75	-$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$350	$350	+$0	16% 64-346 (410)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49¢	$171.5	$169.75	-$1.75
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$97.45	$96.46	-$0.99	24% 201-647 (848)
38 38791873984189<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$65.79	$65.79	-$0	48% 767-833 (1600)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$35.45	$35.8	+$0.35	35% 171-317 (488)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$29.25	$31.85	+$2.6	24% 202-637 (839)
0xheavy888<$100	Heatavg 55.5¢	$22.2	$20.4	-$1.8	57% 103-79 (182)
PA Pan9X<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$12.75	$12.75	-$0	48% 409-445 (854)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Heatavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.55	-$0.1	23% 147-489 (636)

RJW1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$48,999.9

Value

$48.5K

PnL

-$500

Record

47%

116-129 (245)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Heat

Invested

$20,661.17

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$202.56

Record

51%

3672-3496 (7168)

HomeRunHazard

Heat

Invested

$13,732.84

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$83.11

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

nigiri99CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,900.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$74.21

Record

52%

123-112 (235)

739633786

Heat

Invested

$1,912.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.75

Record

5-185 (190)

purplegatto

Heat

Invested

$729.79

Value

$736.94

PnL

+$7.15

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

VeryLucky888

Heat

Invested

$807.03

Value

$615.06

PnL

-$9.12

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

NM-PARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$357.71

Value

$357.94

PnL

+$0.23

Record

60%

3439-2335 (5774)

Both legs:

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

64-346 (410)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.45

Value

$96.46

PnL

-$0.99

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

38791873984189<$100

Heat

Invested

$65.79

Value

$65.79

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Heat

Invested

$35.45

Value

$35.8

PnL

+$0.35

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$29.25

Value

$31.85

PnL

+$2.6

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

0xheavy888<$100

Heat

Invested

$22.2

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$1.8

Record

57%

103-79 (182)

Pan9X<$100

Heat

Invested

$12.75

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

ameisgoat11<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

23%

147-489 (636)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.