Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$445.59

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 92.5¢

+92% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,258

Combined PnL+$635.76

Over5 traders

Total Value$78.59

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$190.17

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 46.7¢	$607.39	$1.1K	+$523.11	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1	Underavg 51.8¢	$362.06	$415.73	+$53.67	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$146.37	$146.37	+$0	28% 275-716 (991)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 48.8¢	$199.47	$115.8	+$51.73	51% 300-292 (592)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 43¢	$43	$50	+$7	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 48¢	$136.65	$41.55	-$95.1	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$98.93	$23.83	-$75.1	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 50¢	$11.93	$11.93	+$0	34% 233-457 (690)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 16.5¢	$10.71	$8.45	-$2.26	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	26% 181-519 (700)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$20.42	$4.32	-$16.1	40% 234-357 (591)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.04	$0.44	-$1.6	54% 383-322 (705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$607.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$523.11

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1

Under

Invested

$362.06

Value

$415.73

PnL

+$53.67

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$146.37

Value

$146.37

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$199.47

Value

$115.8

PnL

+$51.73

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$43

Value

$50

PnL

+$7

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$136.65

Value

$41.55

PnL

-$95.1

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.93

Value

$23.83

PnL

-$75.1

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$11.93

Value

$11.93

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.71

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$2.26

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.42

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$16.1

Record

40%

234-357 (591)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$1.6

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.