Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (89%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 223.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 11¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$673.88

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 10.9¢

-78% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,870

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Under9 traders

Total Value$516.84

Total Shares6,044

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 48¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$1.3K	53% 234-204 (438)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 47¢	$476.73	$983.53	+$506.8	56% 563-451 (1014)
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 52.2¢	$2.6K	$356.53	$-2.3K	27% 13-35 (48)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46.8¢	$175.65	$265	+$89.34	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
NM NM-P	Overavg 56¢	$177.43	$171.29	-$6.14	60% 3455-2348 (5803)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47¢	$174.3	$73.15	-$101.15	57% 3109-2336 (5445)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 31.1¢	$81.94	$27.15	-$54.79	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$87.8	$24.74	-$63.06	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$33.92	$14.99	-$18.93	48% 233-254 (487)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$33.06	$14.95	-$18.1	18% 77-360 (437)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$9.82	$13.33	+$3.51	54% 461-396 (857)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.64	$3.42	-$5.22	51% 361-341 (702)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$0.95	-$1.45	28% 205-534 (739)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.25	$0.95	-$1.3	35% 280-514 (794)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$1,879.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$476.73

Value

$983.53

PnL

+$506.8

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$2,621.24

Value

$356.53

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

27%

13-35 (48)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$175.65

Value

$265

PnL

+$89.34

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$177.43

Value

$171.29

PnL

-$6.14

Record

60%

3455-2348 (5803)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$174.3

Value

$73.15

PnL

-$101.15

Record

57%

3109-2336 (5445)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.94

Value

$27.15

PnL

-$54.79

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$87.8

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$63.06

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.92

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$18.93

Record

48%

233-254 (487)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.06

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$18.1

Record

18%

77-360 (437)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$9.82

Value

$13.33

PnL

+$3.51

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.64

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$5.22

Record

51%

361-341 (702)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$1.45

Record

28%

205-534 (739)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$1.3

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

10.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$701.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

801.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.