Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$891.56

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 60¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,786

Combined PnL+$607.75

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,154

Combined PnL+$283.82

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 53.7¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$431.9	56% 563-451 (1014)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 31.5¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$344.62	53% 234-204 (438)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 73.7¢	$671.74	$605.95	-$65.8	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 42¢	$363.57	$595.21	+$231.65	57% 3109-2336 (5445)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$476.82	$437.93	-$38.89	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$283.53	$274.07	-$9.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.5¢	$193.29	$163.85	-$29.44
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$125.94	$136.44	+$10.5	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
TA takeormake	Overavg 65¢	$123.95	$128.71	+$4.77	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$66.74	$76.27	+$9.53	29% 322-803 (1125)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$66.72	$41.37	-$25.35	30% 326-779 (1105)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$49.98	$31.62	-$18.36	34% 175-334 (509)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$49	$31	-$18	29% 72-176 (248)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 56.1¢	$42.79	$23.66	-$19.13	35% 280-514 (794)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 44¢	$8.24	$10.02	+$5.23	54% 461-396 (857)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,091.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$431.9

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$1,046.41

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$344.62

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$671.74

Value

$605.95

PnL

-$65.8

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$363.57

Value

$595.21

PnL

+$231.65

Record

57%

3109-2336 (5445)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$476.82

Value

$437.93

PnL

-$38.89

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Under$283.5348.6¢-$9.45

Over$193.2962.5¢-$29.44

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$125.94

Value

$136.44

PnL

+$10.5

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$123.95

Value

$128.71

PnL

+$4.77

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$76.27

PnL

+$9.53

Record

29%

322-803 (1125)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.72

Value

$41.37

PnL

-$25.35

Record

30%

326-779 (1105)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.98

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$18.36

Record

34%

175-334 (509)

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49

Value

$31

PnL

-$18

Record

29%

72-176 (248)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.79

Value

$23.66

PnL

-$19.13

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$8.24

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$5.23

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.