Spurs vs. Trail Blazers

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (53%) · Spurs at 66¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 8

Spurs66¢Trail Blazers34¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.4K

Combined PnL

-$411.36

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 65.5¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs66%

Trail Blazers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares30,107

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares30,095

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Spurs — 53%Trail Blazers — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (15 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpurs 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Spursavg 57¢	$12.4K	$14.0K	+$1.7K	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Trail Blazersavg 42.8¢	$11.9K	$9.3K	$-2.6K	50% 7667-7810 (15477)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Spursavg 59¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$296.98	52% 1310-1197 (2507)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Spursavg 59¢	$3.5K	$2.3K	+$262.51	55% 3746-3060 (6806)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Spursavg 59¢	$833.44	$932.04	+$98.6	53% 667-585 (1252)
FO forecastication4ARB<$100	Spursavg 56.5¢	$1.2K	$539.76	+$19.44	50% 1412-1412 (2824)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 56.5¢	$264.23	$310.78	+$46.5
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 37.5¢	$255.98	$228.98	-$27.06
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 56.8¢	$832.09	$505.02	+$70.25	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 35.1¢	$492.71	$462.98	-$29.73	52% 5109-4675 (9784)
OD Oddstorm	Spursavg 62.5¢	$331.66	$319.78	+$2.58	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
nigiri99CTR	Trail Blazersavg 39.9¢	$8.3K	$213.51	-$209.19	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39.5¢	$96.38	$80.52	-$15.86	53% 12584-11282 (23866)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Spursavg 57.3¢	$28.33	$32.64	+$5.17	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
PA Pan9XCTR	Trail Blazersavg 38¢	$132.5	$30.53	-$3.93	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
GH ghorrock<$100	Spursavg 58.6¢	$42.6	$27.47	-$0.4	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$6.15	$4.95	-$1.2	50% 8436-8484 (16920)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 33¢	$4.38	$4.38	-$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

hi774c

Spurs

Invested

$12,399.22

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11,864.46

Value

$9.3K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

50%

7667-7810 (15477)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Spurs

Invested

$2,336.26

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$296.98

Record

52%

1310-1197 (2507)

JAMJAMJAM4

Spurs

Invested

$3,500

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$262.51

Record

55%

3746-3060 (6806)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Spurs

Invested

$833.44

Value

$932.04

PnL

+$98.6

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

forecastication4ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,150.85

Value

$539.76

PnL

+$19.44

Record

50%

1412-1412 (2824)

Both legs:

Spurs$264.2356.5¢+$46.5

Trail Blazers$255.9837.5¢-$27.06

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$832.09

Value

$505.02

PnL

+$70.25

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$492.71

Value

$462.98

PnL

-$29.73

Record

52%

5109-4675 (9784)

Oddstorm

Spurs

Invested

$331.66

Value

$319.78

PnL

+$2.58

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

nigiri99CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8,252.7

Value

$213.51

PnL

-$209.19

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$96.38

Value

$80.52

PnL

-$15.86

Record

53%

12584-11282 (23866)

6512395314597884<$100

Spurs

Invested

$28.33

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$5.17

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

Pan9XCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$132.5

Value

$30.53

PnL

-$3.93

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ghorrock<$100

Spurs

Invested

$42.6

Value

$27.47

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

RLWGCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.15

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

sentrioCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (15 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrSpurs 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.