Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$4.63

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 59.5¢

+34% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$477.47

Total Shares797

Combined PnL+$16.44

Under9 traders

Total Value$820.65

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL-$21.07

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 55.7¢	$429.75	$446.08	+$16.32	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$387.6	$387.01	-$0.59	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$228	$232	+$4
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$159.6	$155.02	-$4.59
MA MadridTime	Underavg 43¢	$304.63	$297.54	-$7.08	31% 405-886 (1291)
LI Limousin	Underavg 43¢	$265.7	$259.52	-$6.18	30% 399-910 (1309)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 47¢	$115.15	$107.8	-$7.35	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$74.87	$67.02	-$0.54	49% 684-724 (1408)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$42.75	$43.5	+$0.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$24.64	$23.52	-$1.29
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 46¢	$60.09	$54.86	-$5.23	31% 406-905 (1311)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 59.1¢	$53.7	$54.82	+$1.11	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$28.28	$28.32	+$0.04	55% 658-540 (1198)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 42¢	$23.77	$23.77	-$0	46% 292-339 (631)
RN1<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$14.08	$17.84	+$3.76	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$3	$3.08	+$0.08	55% 718-583 (1301)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.4	+$0.15	45% 182-223 (405)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.1	-$0.25	33% 317-631 (948)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$429.75

Value

$446.08

PnL

+$16.32

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$387.6

Value

$387.01

PnL

-$0.59

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Over$22857¢+$4

Under$159.643.2¢-$4.59

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$304.63

Value

$297.54

PnL

-$7.08

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$265.7

Value

$259.52

PnL

-$6.18

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$115.15

Value

$107.8

PnL

-$7.35

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$74.87

Value

$67.02

PnL

-$0.54

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Both legs:

Invested

$60.09

Value

$54.86

PnL

-$5.23

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$53.7

Value

$54.82

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.28

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$23.77

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$14.08

Value

$17.84

PnL

+$3.76

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

182-223 (405)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.25

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.